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forecasting (89) media criticism (76) public perception (10) Gary Marcus (5) Steven Pinker (4) Nassim Taleb (3) Francis Fukuyama (2)

From Nostradamus To Fukuyama

Scott Alexander examines how public predictions are judged over time, using examples like Nostradamus and Fukuyama to illustrate common pitfalls and offer advice on making predictions.

acx
Sep 28, 2022 4,045 words 282 likes 577 comments Listen · 29 min Read Read
study critique (268) scientific consensus (7) climate change skepticism (2) behaviorism (2)

How Common Are Science Failures?

Scott Alexander estimates the frequency of significant scientific failures to evaluate the plausibility of climate change skepticism.

ssc
Jul 2, 2014 1,707 words 0 likes 362 comments Read Read
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