Announcement of an AMA session with the AI Futures Project team about AI, forecasting, and alignment. Longer summary

This is a short announcement post for an AMA (Ask Me Anything) session with the AI Futures Project team, where they will be answering questions about AI, forecasting, and alignment for a specific time period. The post includes links to the project's team page, their AI 2027 scenario work, and their blog. Shorter summary

Scott announces his collaboration with AI Futures Project's blog and their upcoming AMA, highlighting recent posts including one about AI time horizons that was validated by new OpenAI data. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces he will be shifting most of his AI blogging to the AI Futures Project blog, where he has already co-written several posts. He highlights three recent posts, particularly one about AI time horizons that was validated by new OpenAI data showing faster horizon growth than previously estimated. He also announces an upcoming AMA with the AI Futures Project team on ACX. Shorter summary

A collection of 41 interesting links and news items from April 2025, covering AI, politics, culture, and science, with Scott's commentary on each. Longer summary

This is a links roundup post featuring various interesting news, studies, and curiosities from April 2025. The post covers a wide range of topics including AI developments (particularly around OpenAI and truth-seeking AI), political updates (about Trump, immigration policy, and minimum wage effects), cultural items (like etymology of cowboy terms and medieval perception), and scientific findings. Scott maintains a light, sometimes humorous tone while sharing these diverse pieces of information, occasionally adding his own analysis or perspective on controversial topics. Shorter summary

Scott announces an irregular classifieds thread where readers can post advertisements under specific categories, with guidelines for respectful engagement. Longer summary

This is a thread post announcing the irregular ACX classifieds where readers can post advertisements in the comments under specific categories: Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, or Other. Scott includes some guidelines about being respectful, especially regarding dating ads, and provides useful links to EA job boards and meetup finders. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes comments on his previous post about POSIWID, showing how the phrase's ambiguity leads to multiple contradictory interpretations while promoting conspiracy thinking. Longer summary

Scott responds to comments on his previous post about the phrase 'The Purpose of a System is What it Does' (POSIWID). He examines various interpretations offered by commenters and argues that while some contain valuable insights, the phrase itself is problematic. He shows how POSIWID can push people from balanced views toward paranoid conspiracy theories, and demonstrates how different commenters interpret the phrase in contradictory ways. Scott argues that the phrase's ambiguity allows people to smuggle in unwarranted assumptions and that there are clearer ways to express any valuable insights it might contain. Shorter summary

Scott critiques the phrase 'the purpose of a system is what it does' by showing how it confuses outcomes with intentions and leads to absurd or paranoid conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the popular phrase 'the purpose of a system is what it does' (POSIWID) by showing how it leads to absurd conclusions. He uses several examples including cancer hospitals, the Ukrainian military, and public transport to demonstrate that a system's actual outcomes don't necessarily reflect its purpose. The post shows how people often misuse this phrase on social media to suggest malicious intent behind system failures, rather than acknowledging that systems can have unintended consequences or simply fail to achieve their goals. He concludes by suggesting satirical alternative phrasings that highlight the absurdity of the original. Shorter summary

Scott shares his main takeaways from the AI 2027 scenario project, discussing various predictions about AI development including cyberwarfare, geopolitical risks, and the nature of the coming singularity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on key insights from the AI 2027 scenario project, highlighting several important predictions and considerations about AI development. He discusses how cyberwarfare might be AI's first major geopolitical impact, the potential for geopolitical instability during AI development, and the concept of a 'software-only singularity' where AI progress outpaces physical automation. The post explores the diminishing relevance of open-source AI, the critical role of AI communication methods in alignment, and the importance of company insiders in determining AI safety outcomes. Scott also discusses controversial topics like potential rapid automation and AI's persuasive capabilities. Shorter summary

Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander introduces a new AI forecasting project led by Daniel Kokotajlo and a team of experts, which predicts rapid AI developments leading to superintelligence by 2028. The post begins by noting how accurate Kokotajlo's 2021 predictions were, then presents the team's forecast which includes an intelligence explosion in 2027, government involvement in AI companies, and potential scenarios ranging from misaligned AI to technofeudalism. Scott notes that while team members have varying timelines, they consider this an 80th percentile fast scenario that shouldn't be ruled out. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes how technology can make previously profound experiences feel cheap and commonplace, using examples from medieval art to AI-generated images, while suggesting that maintaining wonder is still possible through individual effort. Longer summary

Scott explores the concept of semantic apocalypse - how technological progress can cheapen previously profound experiences - through three connected narratives. He starts with the medieval use of ultramarine blue for painting the Virgin Mary's coat, then discusses Erik Hoel's concerns about AI art cheapening Studio Ghibli's work, and finally examines this pattern throughout history. The post suggests that while this loss of wonder is real, it might be more about personal perception than technology itself, citing Chesterton's and Blake's ability to maintain wonder despite familiarity. The piece concludes that maintaining childlike wonder is possible and valuable, even in an age of abundant AI-generated art. Shorter summary

Scott explores the recurring myth of evil underground humanoids across different cultures and time periods in an article written for Asterisk magazine's 'Weird' themed issue. Longer summary

Scott writes in Asterisk magazine about the recurring theme of evil underground humanoids kidnapping and torturing people, linking it from ancient Irish myths to modern conspiracy theories. He explores Richard Shaver's stories about 'deros' (evil cave dwarves) and connects them to similar mythological patterns across cultures and time periods. The post introduces the concept of an 'ur-abduction' narrative and examines why this specific theme appears so consistently throughout human storytelling. Shorter summary

Through various thought experiments around the drowning child scenario, Scott critiques common moral frameworks and proposes using Rawls' 'original position' to develop a more coherent system of moral obligations. Longer summary

Scott explores the limitations of distance and entanglement in Peter Singer's drowning child thought experiment through several creative variations. He examines two descriptive theories that explain our moral intuitions: the Copenhagen interpretation of ethics (gaining moral obligation by 'touching' a situation) and declining marginal utility of moral goods. However, he argues against using these as prescriptive theories, showing through thought experiments how they lead to absurd outcomes. Instead, he proposes using Rawls' 'original position' as a framework: imagining pre-incarnation intelligences making deals about earthly moral obligations. This leads to a system where everyone contributes to a general pot for helping others, with local emergency obligations distributed based on proximity and ability to help, not moral luck. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes misophonia through new research and personal experience, suggesting it might be maintained by complex emotional and social networks rather than pure sound sensitivity. Longer summary

Scott discusses misophonia, a condition where people are extremely intolerant of certain sounds, through the lens of new research suggesting it's not just about sensory sensitivity. He explores evidence showing misophonia persists in deaf people, depends heavily on context, and is often worse with close relations. Through his personal experience with the condition, he proposes that misophonia might be sustained by a complex network of anger, social context, and identity, rather than pure sensory overload. He connects this to his previous work on trapped priors, suggesting the condition persists because these networks prevent normal updating of emotional responses. Shorter summary

Scott provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's attempt to convert from nonprofit to for-profit status, including the legal challenges, competing offers, and implications for AI development. Longer summary

The post explains the complex situation around OpenAI's attempt to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure. Scott details the history of OpenAI as a nonprofit, why they want to change, and the various legal and financial challenges they face. The post covers Sam Altman's proposed buyout plan, Elon Musk's competing offer and lawsuit, and the role of state Attorneys General in approving any conversion. The post also explains the implications for AI development and safety, and contrasts OpenAI's structure with Anthropic's different approach to balancing profit with beneficial AI development. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the implications of the FDA ending compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs, which have provided a cheaper alternative to official channels for the past three years, and examines various responses from both compounding pharmacies and pharmaceutical companies. Longer summary

Scott discusses the upcoming end to compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs in the US, as the FDA declares the shortage over. He explains how for the past three years, compounding pharmacies have provided these drugs at $200/month compared to the official $1000/month price, helping about 2 million Americans. The post explores various strategies companies are using to try to continue providing cheaper alternatives, and how pharmaceutical companies are responding with their own direct-to-consumer models. Scott concludes by noting how this experiment in semi-free-market medicine has shown that a less regulated supply chain can work effectively. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes poor NAEP test scores and explores whether COVID school closures, systemic changes in education standards, or other factors are responsible for the decline. Longer summary

Scott examines the recent poor results of the NAEP standardized test scores and reflects on his previous prediction that COVID school closures wouldn't cause long-term learning losses. Looking at the data, he notes that the downward trend started before COVID, and states with different school closure policies showed similar results. He explores several possible explanations, including systemic changes like lowered academic standards and increased absenteeism post-COVID. The post analyzes various graphs showing different aspects of the learning decline, though the data presents some contradictions. Scott concludes by standing by his original advice to individual parents while suggesting the current problems may be more systemic than individual. Shorter summary

Scott investigates the correlation between intelligence and neuron count, exploring various theories before suggesting that more neurons allow for less polysemantic (overlapping) representations of concepts. Longer summary

Scott explores why intelligence correlates with neuron count across species, humans, and AI models, despite this correlation not being immediately intuitive. He examines various hypotheses about how having more neurons could help with complex pattern-matching tasks like IQ tests. After discussing several possibilities including pattern storage and matching, he settles on polysemanticity as a potential explanation: fewer neurons means each neuron must encode multiple concepts, reducing precision. The post concludes with insights from an expert suggesting that larger neural networks (biological or artificial) can better approximate complex functions and maintain multiple hypotheses simultaneously. Shorter summary

Scott announces a contest for reviews of anything except books, with prizes ranging from $500 to $2,500, due May 12th. Longer summary

Scott announces a variation on his yearly book review contest: instead of reviewing books, participants should review anything else - movies, products, societies, abstract concepts, etc. The post outlines the contest rules, including word count guidelines (2,000-10,000 words), submission process through a Google Form, and prize money ($2,500 for first place). Scott emphasizes that submissions should be anonymous and provides formatting guidelines for footnotes. Shorter summary

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary

In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary

Scott examines and rejects conflict theory (the idea that political disagreements come from material self-interest), arguing instead that political positions are primarily driven by psychological needs and identity rather than material interests. Longer summary

Scott argues against conflict theory, which posits that political disagreements stem from material self-interest, and instead proposes that political positions are driven by psychological needs. He demonstrates this through several examples: the SALT tax cap affecting coastal elites garnered little attention despite significant financial impact, vaccine debates can't be explained by material interests, and most hot-button issues like wokeness or Ukraine have minimal material impact on Americans. The post explains how psychological factors, such as desire for self-esteem and group identity, better explain political positions. Scott concludes that while this makes persuasion theoretically possible, it also explains why genuine compromise attempts are rare. Shorter summary

Scott responds to comments and criticisms of his post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis and its implications for arguments about God's existence, addressing technical points about Boltzmann brains, simplicity measures, and philosophical objections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his previous post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis. He addresses technical criticisms about Boltzmann brains and probability measures, explains why the theory requires simplicity weighting, and defends his claim that it defeats many arguments for God's existence. He engages with philosophical objections about falsifiability and originality, arguing that falsifiability is not the only way to evaluate theories and dismissing claims that the ideas are just reinventing ancient philosophy. Shorter summary

A satirical collection of fictional saint stories about rationalists taking rationalist principles to extreme lengths, written in the style of religious hagiography. Longer summary

A humorous fictional piece written in the style of religious hagiography (stories of saints), telling tales of imagined 'rationalist saints' who exemplify rationalist virtues and concepts. Each story is a short vignette featuring a different saint demonstrating extreme dedication to rationalist principles, from perfect calibration of probabilities to political neutrality to changing minds when evidence demands it. The stories are written with clear satirical intent, playfully incorporating rationalist concepts, figures, and organizations into the traditional format of saint stories. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis provides counterarguments to classical proofs of God's existence, suggesting that the existence of mathematical objects alone could explain the universe without requiring a deity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis (which states that all possible mathematical objects exist) provides counterarguments to the main classical proofs of God's existence. He explains how conscious beings would inevitably find themselves in universes capable of supporting consciousness, and how this explains away arguments like fine-tuning and first cause. The post then explores the challenge of defining 'simplicity' in this context, comparing it to the challenge theists face in defining God. Finally, Scott suggests that even if Tegmark's hypothesis is wrong, its existence proves there may be many undiscovered explanations for the universe beyond just God. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Ted Cruz's database of 'woke' NSF grants and finds that only 40% were actually woke, with many regular science grants included simply for having a mandatory diversity statement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Ted Cruz's database of supposedly 'woke' NSF grants, sampling 100 grants at random. He finds that only 40% were actually woke, with another 20% borderline cases, and 40% completely unrelated to wokeness. Most non-woke grants appeared in the database because they included a seemingly mandatory sentence about helping minorities or women, likely added to satisfy grant requirements. Of the genuinely woke grants, only 10-20% were egregiously bad, while others were mostly benign STEM outreach programs. Scott argues that sorting genuine woke grants from regular science would be easy, taking only a week of work, and criticizes both the Biden administration for requiring diversity statements and Republicans for targeting legitimate research. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes OpenAI's new deliberative alignment approach and explores different possibilities for who should ultimately control AI systems as they become more powerful. Longer summary

Scott discusses OpenAI's new paper on deliberative alignment, which combines constitutional AI with chain of thought reasoning to create more thoughtful AI responses. He explains how the process works by having AI models reflect on moral questions using a specification document. The post then explores different possible approaches to AI chains of command, including prioritizing companies, governments, specifications, moral law, average citizens, or humanity's coherent extrapolated volition. Scott expresses concern that we're heading toward either corporate or government control of AI systems, while acknowledging there may be better alternatives. Shorter summary

Scott announces a new subscriber-only AMA session, setting clear boundaries about which questions he will and won't answer. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a new Ask Me Anything (AMA) session for paid subscribers, where non-subscribers can read responses but only subscribers can ask questions and comment. He sets boundaries for questions he won't answer, including requests for medical advice, attempts to generate controversial statements, and pointless hypotheticals. Shorter summary