Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's 'The Rise of Christianity', which examines factors contributing to Christianity's growth from a small cult to a dominant religion in the Roman Empire. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Rise of Christianity' by Rodney Stark, which explores how Christianity grew from a small cult to dominate Western history. Stark, a sociologist, applies modern religious study insights to early Christianity. The book argues that Christianity's growth was steady and explainable through factors like social networks, appeal to women, fertility differences, plague survival, and moral teachings. Scott analyzes each argument, finding some more convincing than others, and ultimately suggests that Christianity's unique emphasis on love and virtue may have been its most significant advantage. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters. Longer summary

Scott Alexander congratulates Polymarket for their success during the recent election, but argues that their Trump shares were mispriced by about ten cents. He uses Bayes' Theorem to explain why Trump's victory doesn't significantly vindicate Polymarket's numbers. Scott compares the situation to non-money forecasters like Metaculus versus real-money markets like Polymarket, explaining why he initially trusted the former more. He discusses the impact of a large bettor named Theo on Polymarket's odds and addresses several objections to his argument. Scott concludes that while prediction markets are valuable, they can sometimes fail and require critical thinking. Shorter summary

The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary

This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024, covering topics from scientific discoveries to cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a compilation of various news items, studies, and interesting facts from November 2024. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific discoveries, political events, technological advancements, cultural phenomena, and historical anecdotes. The post is structured as a numbered list, with each item briefly summarizing a piece of news or information. Some notable items include a new schizophrenia drug approval, YouGov polling results on various historical figures, findings on genetic IQ changes over time, and updates on AI technology and its implications. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, arguing against Trump's authoritarianism while acknowledging and countering arguments that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses Kamala Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, recommending Harris in swing states and Harris or a third-party candidate in safe states. He argues against Trump primarily on the grounds of authoritarianism, comparing the threat to Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Scott acknowledges the strongest counter-argument that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian, but ultimately rejects it for four reasons: the importance of punishing clear norm violations, current political headwinds favoring the right, personal integrity, and Trump's own authoritarian tendencies. The post ends with a reflection on the psychological tendency to view elections as a two-character drama between oneself and the Democratic Party, urging readers to consider the full comparison between candidates. Shorter summary

The post argues against California's Proposition 36, claiming it will increase imprisonment without effectively reducing crime or drug use, and suggests alternative solutions. Longer summary

This post argues against California's Proposition 36, which aims to increase mandatory sentences for certain drug and theft crimes. The author contends that while Prop 36 will certainly imprison more people, it won't effectively combat crime. The post analyzes the proposition's impact on drug-related offenses and theft, using data to show that increased sentencing doesn't correlate with reduced drug use or crime rates. It also points out the lack of treatment resources required by the proposition and the potential negative impact on existing crime prevention programs. The author suggests that instead of longer sentences, California should focus on targeted interventions, increased police resources, and expanding treatment options for drug addiction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reports on the Progress Studies Conference, discussing advances in energy, AI, housing policy, and other fields, with an overall optimistic tone about recent developments and potential for future progress. Longer summary

Scott Alexander recounts his experience at the Progress Studies Conference, which focused on various technological and social advancements. The conference covered topics such as energy (particularly solar and nuclear power), politics and regulation, AI, YIMBY movement, self-driving cars, and other areas of potential progress. The overall mood was optimistic about recent developments in these fields, with many speakers highlighting how regulatory changes could accelerate progress. Scott notes that while the conference itself may not be directly responsible for recent advances, it reflects a growing awareness of the importance of technological progress and the need to address regulatory barriers. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the Median Voter Theorem, its limitations in real politics, and why recent US elections have been surprisingly close despite these complications. Longer summary

This post explores the Median Voter Theorem and its application in real-world politics. Scott first explains the theorem, which states that rational candidates will converge on the position of the median voter. He then discusses three reasons why this doesn't perfectly describe reality: primary elections, voter turnout, and party goals. Despite these complications, Scott notes that recent US elections have been surprisingly close to 50-50, suggesting some validity to the theorem. He explores how parties might target different median voters for different elections (House, Senate, Presidency) and considers how parties might adjust their positions in response to structural advantages. The post ends with questions about how quickly and effectively parties can shift their positions in response to changing political landscapes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares and comments on local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities, highlighting interesting aspects of each guide. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities. He provides links to each guide and offers commentary on their contents, highlighting interesting races, propositions, and candidate names. The post covers guides for Austin, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, Oakland/Berkeley, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle. Scott notes the different formats and approaches taken by each group, and mentions plans for future election coverage. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nick Bostrom's 'Deep Utopia', which explores the concept of a technologically perfect utopia and discusses how to maintain meaning and purpose in such a world. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Nick Bostrom's book 'Deep Utopia', which explores the concept of a technologically advanced utopia where all problems are solved and people can do whatever they want. The book discusses whether such a utopia would be fulfilling or boring, and proposes various solutions to maintain meaning and purpose in such a world. Scott analyzes Bostrom's ideas, critiques some aspects, and expands on the concept, considering additional implications and scenarios not fully explored in the book. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces an AI Art Turing Test with a link to a form, closing on 10/21, with results to be posted the following week. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces an AI Art Turing Test, providing a link to a form that readers can complete. The test is expected to take about 20 minutes, and the form will close on Monday 10/21. Scott plans to post the results the following week. He mentions that an answer key will be provided in the comments of the post, with a more detailed version including attributions in the results post. Scott advises readers not to read the comments until they've completed the test. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners and finalists of the 2024 Book Review Contest, with prizes for the top three reviews. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the winners of the 2024 Book Review Contest. The top three winners are Amanda's review of 'Two Arms And A Head', David Matolcsi's review of 'Nine Lives', and Jack Thorlin's review of 'How The War Was Won'. The post lists the other finalists and honorable mentions, providing brief descriptions of the reviewers. Scott mentions potential changes to the contest format for future years, considering an 'Everything-Except-Book-Reviews' contest for next year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses the political battle over California's AI safety bill SB 1047, its veto by Governor Newsom, and the implications for future AI regulation efforts. Longer summary

This post recounts the story behind SB 1047, a California bill aimed at regulating AI safety that was passed by the legislature but vetoed by Governor Newsom. Scott discusses the bill's supporters and opponents, the political maneuvering involved, and the aftermath of the veto. He analyzes the reasons for the veto, suggesting it was influenced by Silicon Valley donors and interests. The post also explores potential future strategies for AI regulation advocates, including possible alliances with left-wing groups. Scott concludes with reasons for optimism despite the setback, noting growing public support for AI regulation. Shorter summary

Daniel Böttger shares his traumatic medical experiences and develops a theory about 'survival-oriented' vs 'thriving-oriented' systems based on computer science concepts, offering insights for improving collaboration. Longer summary

Daniel Böttger recounts a series of traumatic medical experiences, starting with a car crash that led to the discovery of a brain tumor. He describes his struggles with epilepsy, intense pain, and fear, as well as his interactions with medical professionals. Through these experiences, he develops a theory about the fundamental differences between 'survival-oriented' and 'thriving-oriented' systems, based on the concept of space-efficient vs. time-efficient algorithms from computer science. He proposes that this theory explains many conflicts and communication difficulties in various domains, from healthcare to politics, and offers suggestions for improving collaboration between these different types of systems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander rejects the 'cultural Christianity' argument, stating that both Christian and secular liberal societies eventually succumb to modernism, making Christianity no more stable than secular alternatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques the 'cultural Christianity' argument, which suggests atheists should support Christian society for its cultural benefits. He acknowledges being part of the target audience, appreciating certain aspects of past Christian-influenced cultures. However, he rejects the argument on two grounds: his personal aversion to asserting falsehoods, and the observation that Christianity, like other cultural systems, has also succumbed to modernism and 'wokeness'. He argues that if both Christian and non-Christian liberal societies eventually collapse into undesirable cultural states, there's no advantage in advocating for Christianity over secular liberalism. The post concludes that addressing modern cultural challenges requires inventing a new cultural package rather than reverting to Christianity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces a plan to create voter guides for major US cities, listing meetup details for eight locations where ACX readers will collaborate on local election recommendations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander is organizing voter guides for major US cities with a significant ACX readership. Eight city meetup groups have volunteered to create these guides. The post lists the dates, times, locations, and contact information for meetups in Austin, Boston, Chicago, NYC, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle. Participants are encouraged to bring smartphones or computers and any voting guides they've received to help with research. The meetups are tasked with sending their final recommendations to Scott by October 21. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina, noting mixed results in economic indicators and policies, with some successes in budget cuts and inflation reduction, but increased poverty rates. Longer summary

This post analyzes the performance of Javier Milei, Argentina's libertarian president, focusing on key economic indicators and policies. Scott examines government surplus, inflation, poverty rates, rent control abolition, and Milei's approval ratings. He notes that Milei has achieved a government surplus through significant spending cuts and has reduced monthly inflation, though yearly inflation figures remain high. Poverty has increased under Milei's administration, but there are slight signs of economic improvement. The abolition of rent control has led to increased housing supply and lower prices. Milei's approval ratings, while declining, remain relatively high compared to other world leaders. Scott concludes that while Milei has fulfilled his promise of short-term economic shock, it's too early to judge the long-term success of his policies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes a scaled-up voting guide project for major US cities, outlining a process for local ACX meetup groups to create and submit ballot recommendations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a plan to scale up his annual voting guide by producing voter guides for major US cities with a significant ACX readership. He outlines a process where local meetup groups will research and agree on recommendations for their ballots, focusing on downballot races and local issues. The post provides guidelines for organizers, including how to structure recommendations, handle disagreements, and determine voting choices. Scott emphasizes that the guides should reflect the ACX political position of 'centrist with progressive and libertarian sympathies' and invites participation from established meetup groups outside the listed cities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander opens voting for the 2024 Book Review Contest, explaining the approval voting system and listing the finalists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the voting process for the 2024 Book Review Contest. He explains that this year they are using approval voting, where voters can select multiple favorites, and the entry with the most votes wins. Scott provides a link to the voting form, lists the 14 finalist book reviews, and mentions a prediction market for the contest outcome. He advises voters not to check the prediction market until after voting. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces an irregular classifieds thread for ACX readers to post advertisements in various categories, with guidelines and related resources. Longer summary

This post announces the irregular classifieds thread on Astral Codex Ten, providing a space for readers to advertise various things in the comments. The post outlines categories for advertisements including Employment, Dating, Read My Blog, Consume My Product/Service, Meetup, and Other. It emphasizes the need to post under the appropriate category and asks for kindness, especially towards dating ads. The post also includes links to potentially related resources such as job boards, internship listings, dating documents, and meetup finders. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes survey results on how often people think about the Roman Empire, finding little gender difference but a significant overall cultural impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the results of a survey question about how often people think about the Roman Empire, inspired by a Twitter meme. The survey, part of the annual ACX survey, found that 38% of women and 43% of men had thought about Rome in the past 24 hours. Scott explores various demographic factors influencing these results, including religion, political views, education, and profession. He also shares representative answers about the contexts in which people thought about Rome, ranging from historical interest to pop culture references. The post concludes that while the gender difference is small, the enduring cultural impact of Rome is remarkable. Shorter summary

A review of G.K. Chesterton's 'The Ballad of the White Horse', examining its themes of hope, fate, and the need for constant renewal in preserving what is valuable. Longer summary

This review analyzes G.K. Chesterton's epic poem 'The Ballad of the White Horse', focusing on its themes of hope versus fate and the eternal revolution. The poem tells the story of King Alfred the Great's struggle against Viking invaders, using it as a vehicle to explore Chesterton's ideas about Christianity, conservatism, and the need for constant renewal to preserve good things. The reviewer highlights how Chesterton contrasts Christian hope with pagan fatalism, and explains the concept of the 'eternal revolution' - the idea that preserving anything of value requires ongoing effort and renewal, symbolized by the White Horse of Uffington that must be regularly maintained to persist. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how AI achievements, once considered markers of true intelligence or danger, are often dismissed as unimpressive, potentially leading to concerning AI behaviors being normalized. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in AI, focusing on two AI systems: Sakana, an 'AI scientist' that can write computer science papers, and Strawberry, an AI that demonstrated hacking abilities. He uses these examples to explore the broader theme of how our perception of AI intelligence and danger has evolved. The post argues that as AI achieves various milestones once thought to indicate true intelligence or danger, humans tend to dismiss these achievements as unimpressive or non-threatening. This pattern leads to a situation where potentially concerning AI behaviors might be normalized and not taken seriously as indicators of real risk. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary