Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate. Longer summary

Scott Alexander introduces a new AI forecasting project led by Daniel Kokotajlo and a team of experts, which predicts rapid AI developments leading to superintelligence by 2028. The post begins by noting how accurate Kokotajlo's 2021 predictions were, then presents the team's forecast which includes an intelligence explosion in 2027, government involvement in AI companies, and potential scenarios ranging from misaligned AI to technofeudalism. Scott notes that while team members have varying timelines, they consider this an 80th percentile fast scenario that shouldn't be ruled out. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes how technology can make previously profound experiences feel cheap and commonplace, using examples from medieval art to AI-generated images, while suggesting that maintaining wonder is still possible through individual effort. Longer summary

Scott explores the concept of semantic apocalypse - how technological progress can cheapen previously profound experiences - through three connected narratives. He starts with the medieval use of ultramarine blue for painting the Virgin Mary's coat, then discusses Erik Hoel's concerns about AI art cheapening Studio Ghibli's work, and finally examines this pattern throughout history. The post suggests that while this loss of wonder is real, it might be more about personal perception than technology itself, citing Chesterton's and Blake's ability to maintain wonder despite familiarity. The piece concludes that maintaining childlike wonder is possible and valuable, even in an age of abundant AI-generated art. Shorter summary

Scott explores the recurring myth of evil underground humanoids across different cultures and time periods in an article written for Asterisk magazine's 'Weird' themed issue. Longer summary

Scott writes in Asterisk magazine about the recurring theme of evil underground humanoids kidnapping and torturing people, linking it from ancient Irish myths to modern conspiracy theories. He explores Richard Shaver's stories about 'deros' (evil cave dwarves) and connects them to similar mythological patterns across cultures and time periods. The post introduces the concept of an 'ur-abduction' narrative and examines why this specific theme appears so consistently throughout human storytelling. Shorter summary

Through various thought experiments around the drowning child scenario, Scott critiques common moral frameworks and proposes using Rawls' 'original position' to develop a more coherent system of moral obligations. Longer summary

Scott explores the limitations of distance and entanglement in Peter Singer's drowning child thought experiment through several creative variations. He examines two descriptive theories that explain our moral intuitions: the Copenhagen interpretation of ethics (gaining moral obligation by 'touching' a situation) and declining marginal utility of moral goods. However, he argues against using these as prescriptive theories, showing through thought experiments how they lead to absurd outcomes. Instead, he proposes using Rawls' 'original position' as a framework: imagining pre-incarnation intelligences making deals about earthly moral obligations. This leads to a system where everyone contributes to a general pot for helping others, with local emergency obligations distributed based on proximity and ability to help, not moral luck. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes misophonia through new research and personal experience, suggesting it might be maintained by complex emotional and social networks rather than pure sound sensitivity. Longer summary

Scott discusses misophonia, a condition where people are extremely intolerant of certain sounds, through the lens of new research suggesting it's not just about sensory sensitivity. He explores evidence showing misophonia persists in deaf people, depends heavily on context, and is often worse with close relations. Through his personal experience with the condition, he proposes that misophonia might be sustained by a complex network of anger, social context, and identity, rather than pure sensory overload. He connects this to his previous work on trapped priors, suggesting the condition persists because these networks prevent normal updating of emotional responses. Shorter summary

Scott provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's attempt to convert from nonprofit to for-profit status, including the legal challenges, competing offers, and implications for AI development. Longer summary

The post explains the complex situation around OpenAI's attempt to convert from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure. Scott details the history of OpenAI as a nonprofit, why they want to change, and the various legal and financial challenges they face. The post covers Sam Altman's proposed buyout plan, Elon Musk's competing offer and lawsuit, and the role of state Attorneys General in approving any conversion. The post also explains the implications for AI development and safety, and contrasts OpenAI's structure with Anthropic's different approach to balancing profit with beneficial AI development. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the implications of the FDA ending compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs, which have provided a cheaper alternative to official channels for the past three years, and examines various responses from both compounding pharmacies and pharmaceutical companies. Longer summary

Scott discusses the upcoming end to compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs in the US, as the FDA declares the shortage over. He explains how for the past three years, compounding pharmacies have provided these drugs at $200/month compared to the official $1000/month price, helping about 2 million Americans. The post explores various strategies companies are using to try to continue providing cheaper alternatives, and how pharmaceutical companies are responding with their own direct-to-consumer models. Scott concludes by noting how this experiment in semi-free-market medicine has shown that a less regulated supply chain can work effectively. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes poor NAEP test scores and explores whether COVID school closures, systemic changes in education standards, or other factors are responsible for the decline. Longer summary

Scott examines the recent poor results of the NAEP standardized test scores and reflects on his previous prediction that COVID school closures wouldn't cause long-term learning losses. Looking at the data, he notes that the downward trend started before COVID, and states with different school closure policies showed similar results. He explores several possible explanations, including systemic changes like lowered academic standards and increased absenteeism post-COVID. The post analyzes various graphs showing different aspects of the learning decline, though the data presents some contradictions. Scott concludes by standing by his original advice to individual parents while suggesting the current problems may be more systemic than individual. Shorter summary

Scott investigates the correlation between intelligence and neuron count, exploring various theories before suggesting that more neurons allow for less polysemantic (overlapping) representations of concepts. Longer summary

Scott explores why intelligence correlates with neuron count across species, humans, and AI models, despite this correlation not being immediately intuitive. He examines various hypotheses about how having more neurons could help with complex pattern-matching tasks like IQ tests. After discussing several possibilities including pattern storage and matching, he settles on polysemanticity as a potential explanation: fewer neurons means each neuron must encode multiple concepts, reducing precision. The post concludes with insights from an expert suggesting that larger neural networks (biological or artificial) can better approximate complex functions and maintain multiple hypotheses simultaneously. Shorter summary

Scott announces a contest for reviews of anything except books, with prizes ranging from $500 to $2,500, due May 12th. Longer summary

Scott announces a variation on his yearly book review contest: instead of reviewing books, participants should review anything else - movies, products, societies, abstract concepts, etc. The post outlines the contest rules, including word count guidelines (2,000-10,000 words), submission process through a Google Form, and prize money ($2,500 for first place). Scott emphasizes that submissions should be anonymous and provides formatting guidelines for footnotes. Shorter summary

Scott shares 50 diverse links covering topics from AI developments to policy changes, with commentary on current events, research findings, and societal trends. Longer summary

In this monthly links roundup, Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics including AI developments, public policy changes, scientific research, and current events. The post follows a numbered format presenting each item with Scott's characteristic analysis and often humorous commentary. Notable topics include AI safety developments, changes in government policy, climate change updates, and various social and technological trends. The tone alternates between analytical and personal reflection, particularly when discussing potentially concerning political developments. Shorter summary

Scott examines and rejects conflict theory (the idea that political disagreements come from material self-interest), arguing instead that political positions are primarily driven by psychological needs and identity rather than material interests. Longer summary

Scott argues against conflict theory, which posits that political disagreements stem from material self-interest, and instead proposes that political positions are driven by psychological needs. He demonstrates this through several examples: the SALT tax cap affecting coastal elites garnered little attention despite significant financial impact, vaccine debates can't be explained by material interests, and most hot-button issues like wokeness or Ukraine have minimal material impact on Americans. The post explains how psychological factors, such as desire for self-esteem and group identity, better explain political positions. Scott concludes that while this makes persuasion theoretically possible, it also explains why genuine compromise attempts are rare. Shorter summary

Scott responds to comments and criticisms of his post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis and its implications for arguments about God's existence, addressing technical points about Boltzmann brains, simplicity measures, and philosophical objections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and responds to comments on his previous post about Tegmark's Mathematical Universe Hypothesis. He addresses technical criticisms about Boltzmann brains and probability measures, explains why the theory requires simplicity weighting, and defends his claim that it defeats many arguments for God's existence. He engages with philosophical objections about falsifiability and originality, arguing that falsifiability is not the only way to evaluate theories and dismissing claims that the ideas are just reinventing ancient philosophy. Shorter summary

A satirical collection of fictional saint stories about rationalists taking rationalist principles to extreme lengths, written in the style of religious hagiography. Longer summary

A humorous fictional piece written in the style of religious hagiography (stories of saints), telling tales of imagined 'rationalist saints' who exemplify rationalist virtues and concepts. Each story is a short vignette featuring a different saint demonstrating extreme dedication to rationalist principles, from perfect calibration of probabilities to political neutrality to changing minds when evidence demands it. The stories are written with clear satirical intent, playfully incorporating rationalist concepts, figures, and organizations into the traditional format of saint stories. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis provides counterarguments to classical proofs of God's existence, suggesting that the existence of mathematical objects alone could explain the universe without requiring a deity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis (which states that all possible mathematical objects exist) provides counterarguments to the main classical proofs of God's existence. He explains how conscious beings would inevitably find themselves in universes capable of supporting consciousness, and how this explains away arguments like fine-tuning and first cause. The post then explores the challenge of defining 'simplicity' in this context, comparing it to the challenge theists face in defining God. Finally, Scott suggests that even if Tegmark's hypothesis is wrong, its existence proves there may be many undiscovered explanations for the universe beyond just God. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes Ted Cruz's database of 'woke' NSF grants and finds that only 40% were actually woke, with many regular science grants included simply for having a mandatory diversity statement. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Ted Cruz's database of supposedly 'woke' NSF grants, sampling 100 grants at random. He finds that only 40% were actually woke, with another 20% borderline cases, and 40% completely unrelated to wokeness. Most non-woke grants appeared in the database because they included a seemingly mandatory sentence about helping minorities or women, likely added to satisfy grant requirements. Of the genuinely woke grants, only 10-20% were egregiously bad, while others were mostly benign STEM outreach programs. Scott argues that sorting genuine woke grants from regular science would be easy, taking only a week of work, and criticizes both the Biden administration for requiring diversity statements and Republicans for targeting legitimate research. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes OpenAI's new deliberative alignment approach and explores different possibilities for who should ultimately control AI systems as they become more powerful. Longer summary

Scott discusses OpenAI's new paper on deliberative alignment, which combines constitutional AI with chain of thought reasoning to create more thoughtful AI responses. He explains how the process works by having AI models reflect on moral questions using a specification document. The post then explores different possible approaches to AI chains of command, including prioritizing companies, governments, specifications, moral law, average citizens, or humanity's coherent extrapolated volition. Scott expresses concern that we're heading toward either corporate or government control of AI systems, while acknowledging there may be better alternatives. Shorter summary

Scott announces a new subscriber-only AMA session, setting clear boundaries about which questions he will and won't answer. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a new Ask Me Anything (AMA) session for paid subscribers, where non-subscribers can read responses but only subscribers can ask questions and comment. He sets boundaries for questions he won't answer, including requests for medical advice, attempts to generate controversial statements, and pointless hypotheticals. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander and 1DaySooner outline potential positive health policy initiatives that could emerge under three key Trump administration health appointees: Jim O'Neill, Marty Makary, and Jay Bhattacharya. Longer summary

This post discusses potential health policy proposals under a hypothetical second Trump administration, focusing on three key appointees and their possible initiatives. The piece examines Jim O'Neill as Deputy Secretary of HHS, highlighting his potential work on organ donation compensation and longevity research; Marty Makary as FDA Commissioner, discussing FDA transparency and regulatory improvements; and Jay Bhattacharya as NIH Director, exploring research funding reforms and challenge trials. Written in collaboration with 1DaySooner, the post specifically focuses on optimistic scenarios that could emerge from these appointments. Shorter summary

Scott argues that debates about prioritizing Americans over foreigners in the PEPFAR controversy miss the point, as cancelled foreign aid money wouldn't automatically fund effective domestic programs but would instead be spent much less efficiently. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques recent discussions about PEPFAR, a successful AIDS program in Africa that was briefly paused. He argues that debates about whether we should prioritize Americans over foreigners miss the key point: money saved from canceling highly effective programs like PEPFAR wouldn't automatically go to equally effective domestic programs. Instead, it would likely fund much less effective initiatives or get lost in general federal spending. The post explains how government spending tends to be inefficient, and argues that even if you value American lives more than foreign ones, the effectiveness gap between PEPFAR and likely alternative uses of the money is so large (around 100x) that you would need to value foreign lives at literally zero to justify canceling it. Shorter summary

A roundup of recent developments in charter cities and model city projects, including setbacks for Prospera and NEOM, new proposals in the US, and updates on various other projects worldwide. Longer summary

This post covers recent developments in various charter city and model city projects worldwide. It starts with Prospera in Honduras being declared unconstitutional, discussing their two-pronged strategy of waiting for political change and pursuing international arbitration. It then covers Saudi Arabia's NEOM project scaling back its ambitions, Trump's proposal for 'freedom cities' in America, California Forever's strategic pivot in Solano County, and Bhutan's ambitious Geluphu Mindfulness City project. The post ends with brief updates on other model city projects including Praxis, Fumba, Esmeralda, and Kanye West's Middle East plans. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes why certain themes appear in recurring dreams, proposing and examining two main theories: one based on prospective memory and another on physical sensations during sleep. Longer summary

Scott explores theories about why certain themes recur in people's dreams. He starts from an anecdote about a Jewish friend having recurring dreams about being unprepared for Shabbat, which mirrors his own dreams about being unprepared for homework or flights. He proposes that recurring dreams might be related to prospective memory - the brain's system for remembering future tasks. He then examines various common dream themes to see if they fit this theory, finding it explains some but not all types of recurring dreams. He also discusses an alternative theory about dreams being based on physical sensations during sleep, concluding there's strong evidence for the sensation theory and weaker but interesting evidence for the prospective memory theory. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the results of the 2025 ACX reader survey, revealing interesting patterns in reader demographics, beliefs, and behaviors, with some surprising contrasts between vocal commenters and the general readership. Longer summary

Scott presents the results of the 2025 ACX survey, which had 5,975 respondents. He shares several interesting findings, including Trump's slight increase in favorability among readers, Long COVID trends, mask-wearing habits, architecture preferences, the impact of his voting guide, statistics about shoplifting and opinions on punishments, attitudes towards homeless encampments, cryptocurrency usage, and experiences with ayahuasca. The data shows some surprising contrasts between vocal commenters and the silent majority of readers, particularly on issues like crime and punishment. Scott makes the data publicly available with some privacy-protecting restrictions. Shorter summary

Scott critiques self-proclaimed moral nihilists who claim to not care about strangers' suffering, by pointing out their passionate response to the British grooming gangs scandal reveals they actually do care. Longer summary

Scott points out that self-proclaimed 'based post-Christian vitalists' who claim to reject caring about suffering of strangers in far-off countries, suddenly become very passionate about the British grooming gangs scandal. He argues this reveals their true moral nature - that like everyone else, they do have basic moral impulses that include caring about suffering of strangers. The post examines different ways people try to reconcile their contradictory moral impulses, and argues that admitting to having moral concern for others is more honest than trying to maintain a facade of not caring. Shorter summary

The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open, featuring 36 questions and a particular focus on comparing forecasting bots with human predictors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the opening of the 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest, although the 2024 results are pending due to complications. He mentions hoping to compare Metaculus with Polymarket but couldn't due to recent events including FBI raids. Scott expresses particular interest in seeing how new forecasting bots will perform against top human forecasters in this year's contest, which includes 36 questions and offers $10,000 in prizes. Shorter summary