Scott argues against the trend of 'Boomer-hating,' contending that Baby Boomers delivered peace and prosperity, passed on greater wealth to their children, and don't differ significantly from younger generations on most political issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander pushes back against the growing anti-Boomer sentiment in contemporary discourse. He argues that despite popular narratives, Baby Boomers presided over an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity, and younger generations actually have more inflation-adjusted wealth than Boomers did at the same age. He examines claims that Boomers are politically extreme (both left and right), finding minimal generational differences on issues like climate change, nuclear power, and housing policy. Scott addresses the accusation that Boomers are plundering younger generations through Social Security, showing that benefit generosity peaked in 1972 and has since contracted. He concludes by warning that generational identity politics, like other forms of identity politics, provides a lazy way to hate everything while avoiding substantive policy discussion, and that today's young people will eventually face similar resentment from future generations. Shorter summary

Scott argues that taking the Giving What We Can Pledge to donate a fixed percentage of income is the single most impactful decision most people can make, eliminating donation stress while maximizing charitable impact. Longer summary

Scott advocates for taking the Giving What We Can Pledge, arguing that committing to donate a fixed percentage of income (typically 10%) to effective charities is one of the most impactful decisions someone can make. He describes how he used to feel stressed and irrational about charitable giving before discovering the pledge, and explains that having a predetermined commitment eliminates the guilt and decision fatigue of responding to individual fundraising appeals. The post emphasizes that for most people, financial donations are their most powerful tool for changing the world, and that making a binding pledge - rather than relying on willpower for each donation - is the key to actually following through on altruistic values. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

Scott examines why young people feel economically hopeless despite economists saying things are fine, testing various explanations like housing costs and wages, and concluding the truth involves both real factors (harder competition, expensive cities, recent mortgage spikes) and media-driven negativity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the 'vibecession' - the paradox where economic indicators show improvement but consumer sentiment is terrible, particularly among young people who feel permanently locked out of opportunity. He systematically examines various proposed explanations including declining wages, housing costs, inflation miscalculation, inequality, and debt, finding that none fully explain the phenomenon. His analysis suggests the crisis may be partly real (increased effort required for same outcomes, concentration of jobs in expensive cities, recent mortgage increases) but also partly driven by increasingly negative media coverage and changing consumption patterns toward more conspiratorial sources. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new genetic study on missing heritability that both hereditarians and nurturists claim vindicates their position, concluding that despite the study's advances, the fundamental debate over how heritable traits like IQ actually are remains unresolved. Longer summary

This post discusses a new genetic study that attempted to resolve the "missing heritability" debate - the gap between high heritability estimates from twin studies (50-80%) and low estimates from molecular genetic studies (10-20%). The study used whole-genome sequencing to include rare genetic variants and found they could account for about 88% of expected heritability, but the actual heritability estimates themselves were only medium (30-40%). Both hereditarians and nurturists claimed victory: hereditarians because the gap was closed (proving the genes exist), nurturists because the total heritability found was still lower than twin studies suggested. Scott examines both sides' arguments, including measurement error corrections and various confounders, and concludes that despite everyone's claims, the debate remains fundamentally unresolved as different methods continue producing different estimates with no clear explanation why. Shorter summary

Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore. Longer summary

Scott argues that AI safety regulation will not significantly harm America's position in the AI race with China. He breaks down the race into three levels (compute, models, and applications), showing America has a massive 10x compute advantage while China's strategy focuses on applications. He demonstrates that proposed AI safety regulations would add only 1-2% to training costs - trivial compared to America's compute lead. The real threats to US advantage are chip export policies and smuggling, where NVIDIA lobbies to sell advanced chips to China, potentially reducing the US advantage from 30x to 1.7x. Scott notes the irony that many people opposing safety regulation on China grounds simultaneously support chip exports, and argues safety regulation might actually help the US by improving security, enabling compute governance, and preventing future overreactions to AI incidents. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a paper by leading researchers attempting to determine AI consciousness through computational theories, critiques their conflation of access and phenomenal consciousness, and predicts society will inconsistently ascribe consciousness to AIs based on their social roles rather than their underlying architecture. Longer summary

Scott reviews a new paper by Yoshua Bengio, David Chalmers, and others that attempts to determine whether AI systems are conscious by examining computational theories of consciousness like Recurrent Processing Theory and Global Workspace Theory. The paper finds that current AIs lack the necessary 'something something feedback' mechanisms for consciousness, but future architectures could have them. Scott criticizes the paper for conflating access consciousness (ability to introspect) with phenomenal consciousness (inner experience), and argues that even if AIs satisfy these computational criteria, it's unclear whether they would truly have subjective experience. He predicts a paradox where society will treat some AIs (like companions) as conscious while denying consciousness to functionally identical AIs in other roles (like factory robots), similar to how we treat dogs versus pigs today. Shorter summary

Scott asks readers to suggest questions for the 2026 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest, with prizes for the top ten contributors and AI bots competing this year. Longer summary

Scott announces the upcoming ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest for 2026 and calls for question suggestions from readers. The contest has been running for several years with Metaculus handling most of the organization, and last year attracted over 4500 forecasters predicting on 33 questions. Scott explains that good questions should be objective, verifiable outcomes that will be resolved by year's end, providing examples of well-specified versus poorly-specified questions. The top ten question contributors will receive prizes ranging from $150 to $700, and this year's contest will include AI bots competing alongside humans. Shorter summary

Scott examines San Francisco's apparent improvement in homelessness, finding the main effect was decreased tent encampments due to court rulings allowing easier clearing, not actual reduction in homeless population, revealing a basic tradeoff between visibility and homeless welfare. Longer summary

Scott investigates why San Francisco's homelessness crisis appears to have improved, finding that the main effect was a dramatic decrease in tent encampments (not overall homelessness) due to court rulings making it easier to clear them. He analyzes four potential explanations: encampment clearing after legal changes starting in 2023, a possible small decrease in actual homelessness due to falling rents and enforcement driving people to hide, Mayor Lurie's policies (which he finds mostly ineffective), and claims about cities shipping homeless people elsewhere (which he finds largely unsupported). Scott concludes this is a 'maximally boring story' about a basic tradeoff where cities made homelessness less visible at the cost of making homeless people's lives harder, challenging both his previous belief that nothing could improve the problem without mass incarceration and the opposing view that 'getting tough' would be compassionate. Shorter summary

Scott explains the Buddhist claim that 'life is suffering' through a temperature analogy: just as cold is merely the absence of heat, joy is merely less suffering, with nirvana being 'absolute zero suffering' rather than a neutral state. Longer summary

Scott explores the Buddhist claim that 'life is suffering' by explaining it through an analogy with temperature: just as scientifically there is only heat (with cold being merely the absence of heat), Buddhists claim there is only suffering (with joy being merely less suffering than baseline). The post addresses the common objection that Buddhism seems to reject life's good experiences, explaining that nirvana isn't a gray neutral state but rather 'absolute zero suffering' - more blissful than ordinary happiness, just as absolute zero is colder than room temperature. Scott connects this to previous discussions about jhanas, meditation, and the symmetry theory of valence, where irregularity in brain activity corresponds to suffering. Shorter summary

Scott examines a paradox where bloomers and anti-doomers warn against apocalyptic thinking while treating doomerism itself as an unprecedented existential crisis requiring drastic action. Longer summary

Scott analyzes Jason Pargin's novel 'I'm Starting To Worry About This Black Box Of Doom' and similar arguments from Peter Thiel, Tyler Cowen, and progress studies advocates, noting they all share a contradiction: they argue we should stop treating problems as unprecedented crises, except for the problem of treating problems as crises, which they present as uniquely dangerous. The post examines how these thinkers simultaneously advocate against doomerism while expressing extreme concern about doomerism itself. Scott argues this reveals that strong views about a 'crisis of doomerism' are incompatible with worldviews that reject the existence of real crises, and concludes that optimism should be a heuristic rather than an absolute principle, with problems (including excessive doomerism) evaluated based on evidence using consistent standards. Shorter summary

Scott explores three approaches to 'writing for AI' - teaching knowledge, influencing beliefs, and enabling simulation - finding the first limited, the second theoretically confused, and the third creepy and ethically troubling. Longer summary

Scott examines the concept of 'writing for AI' - creating content that will influence future AI systems - through three lenses: helping AIs learn knowledge, presenting arguments to shape AI beliefs, and helping AIs model writers in enough detail to recreate them. He finds the first two either limited or theoretically muddled, and the third deeply unsettling. The post explores why influencing AI beliefs faces both practical obstacles (alignment training will override corpus data) and theoretical ones (finding the right sweet spot of influence). Scott is particularly disturbed by the idea of AIs simulating him, comparing it to being 'an ape in some transhuman zoo,' and struggles with questions about whether writers should try to impose their values on future AI systems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary

Scott surveys the current state of charter city projects worldwide, from Grand Bahama's potential revival to California Forever's bureaucratic progress to Prospera's legal battles in Honduras. Longer summary

Scott provides updates on several charter city and model city projects around the world. He covers Grand Bahama's potential sale to a charter city company after decades of decline, California Forever's progress through bureaucratic approval processes, Prospera's legal standoff with the Honduran government ahead of elections, and Sherbro Island City in Sierra Leone backed by the grandson of the country's first president and actor Idris Elba. The post ends with brief updates on various other projects, including separatist communities in the US, Trump's Freedom Cities plan, and a new special economic zone in Nevis. Shorter summary

Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary

Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary

Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary

Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary

Scott announces the winners and finalists of the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest, with prizes ranging from free subscriptions to $2500, and provides bios for all the winning authors. Longer summary

Scott announces the winners of the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest, with first place going to a review of Joan of Arc, second place to Alpha School, and third place to the Russo-Ukrainian War. The post lists all finalists and honorable mentions with brief bios of the authors, explains the prizes (ranging from free ACX subscriptions to cash awards of $2500 for first place), and notes that the contest will alternate yearly between book reviews and non-book reviews going forward. Shorter summary

Scott announces the results of the 2025 ACX Grants round, awarding $1.5 million to 42 projects out of 654 applications, covering areas from genetic engineering and disease prevention to AI safety and educational reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2025 ACX Grants program, which received 654 applications and funded 42 projects across diverse areas including global health, AI safety, metascience, animal welfare, and development economics. The grants range from $5,000 to $150,000 and support initiatives like genetically engineered nutritious corn, screwworm eradication, lead-acid battery recycling programs, organ donation improvement, AI bias research, and various biosecurity and pandemic prevention projects. Scott thanks the funders, Manifund team, and numerous expert evaluators who helped assess applications, and notes that some projects remain in stealth mode. The post concludes with extensive credits to contributors and mentions that the next grants round will likely occur in late 2026 or early 2027. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes how the term 'fascist' combines factual meaning with implied violence-justifying connotations, making its casual use potentially dangerous in current political discourse. Longer summary

Scott examines the logical inconsistency between three commonly held beliefs: that many Americans are fascists, that fascists are legitimate targets for violence, and that political violence in America is currently unacceptable. Using the recent Twitter dispute between Gavin Newsom and Stephen Miller as a starting point, he explores how the term 'fascist' has both denotative meaning (far-right nationalist) and violent connotations. The post discusses the challenges of determining when political violence becomes justified, and concludes that while the term 'fascist' shouldn't be banned, it's better to avoid using it when possible to prevent contributing to dangerous rhetoric. Shorter summary

Scott opens voting for the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest finalists, listing all thirteen entries and providing a link to the ranked-choice voting form. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces voting for the 2025 Non-Book Review Contest finalists, providing links to all thirteen finalist entries and the voting form. The post lists the diverse topics of the finalists, ranging from education and science to personal experiences and historical events. Voting will use ranked choice format where voters pick their top three choices, and closes on October 13. Shorter summary

A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

A personal account of fighting as a foreign volunteer in Ukraine, from leaving a boring IT job to joining the International Legion and experiencing trench warfare firsthand. Longer summary

The author describes their journey from an unfulfilling IT job to joining Ukraine's International Legion as a foreign volunteer fighter in 2022. They detail the process of getting to Ukraine, the initial experience in Lviv, and working with various volunteer organizations before joining the military. The bulk of the post describes daily life in the trenches, the structure of the International Legion, and the realities of modern warfare including drone combat. The author reflects on the experience of war, arguing that while destructive, it can provide meaning and purpose for young men seeking adventure and honor. Shorter summary

A satirical story about a Bay Area house party where men pretend to be connected to right-wing figures to attract journalists, while exploring tech culture and social media dynamics. Longer summary

Scott writes a satirical story about a Bay Area house party where men engage in 'curtfishing' - pretending to be connected to right-wing figures to attract female journalists. The story follows various conversations at the party, including one with someone pretending to be Curtis Yarvin, a startup founder working on automated condemnations, and a discussion about the addictive and damaging nature of Twitter (now X). The story is filled with tech culture in-jokes and commentary on social media dynamics, journalism, and Silicon Valley culture. Shorter summary

A book review exploring the history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's pioneering but ultimately unsuccessful vision for a hypertext-based internet system that preceded and differed significantly from the World Wide Web. Longer summary

This book review traces the fascinating history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's ambitious vision for a hypertext-based internet system that predated and rivaled the World Wide Web. Starting with Vannevar Bush's 1945 concept of the memex, through Doug Engelbart's groundbreaking demos, to Nelson's decades-long quest to build Xanadu, the post explores how this alternative vision for the internet - featuring bidirectional links, embedded content, and built-in attribution - ultimately failed to materialize despite its early start and innovative ideas. The review ends by questioning whether the simpler Web we got instead, built by Tim Berners-Lee, might have cost us something valuable in terms of how we connect and share information online. Shorter summary

Scott explains why true democracy requires more than just winning elections - it needs a complex system of checks and balances to ensure future elections remain fair and free. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains why 'democracy' requires more than just having one election where the winner gets unlimited power. He argues that to ensure future fair elections, a democracy needs various checks and balances that we associate with liberalism - like an independent judiciary, free press, and civil society organizations. He describes how these institutions work together to prevent a leader from subverting future elections, using the example of what would happen if a leader tried to rig an election by firing election monitors. The post concludes by noting that both progressive and conservative authoritarians can threaten these democratic safeguards, though through different methods. Shorter summary