Scott Alexander uses Kelly betting to argue why AI development, unlike other technologies, poses too great a risk to civilization to pursue aggressively. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Scott Aaronson's argument for being less hostile to AI development. While agreeing with Aaronson's points about nuclear power and other technologies where excessive caution caused harm, Alexander argues that AI is different. He uses the concept of Kelly betting from finance to explain why: even with good bets, you shouldn't risk everything at once. Alexander contends that while technology is generally a great bet, AI development risks 'betting everything' on civilization's future. He concludes that while some AI development is necessary, we must treat existential risks differently than other technological risks. Shorter summary