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Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits.
Scott Alexander examines how public predictions are judged over time, using examples like Nostradamus and Fukuyama to illustrate common pitfalls and offer advice on making predictions.
Scott Alexander won his three-year bet on AI progress in image generation compositionality within three months, demonstrating unexpectedly rapid AI advancement.
Scott Alexander argues against Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, discussing the potential for future AI capabilities and the nature of human intelligence.
Scott Alexander bets that AI models will quickly overcome current limitations, based on how GPT-3 improved on GPT-2's shortcomings identified by Gary Marcus.
Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add to Home Screen. Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add app to Home screen. Add Read Scott Alexander to your home screen to read it like an app.