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Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going.
The post examines the theory of treating schizophrenia's prodrome stage, exploring how early intervention might prevent full-blown schizophrenia and discussing the biological mechanisms behind the disease's progression.
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