Scott Alexander recounts his experience with Substack's advance payment offer, demonstrating that the company's strategy was likely motivated by genuine revenue predictions rather than sinister intentions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his personal experience with Substack's advance payment offer, countering claims that Substack's strategy is sinister. He describes how Substack convinced him to join by offering a large advance based on their revenue predictions. Scott reveals that his actual subscriber-generated revenue slightly exceeded Substack's prediction, suggesting that Substack's offer was genuine and not manipulative. He also mentions Matt Yglesias's similar experience, indicating that their cases might be typical of Substack's approach. Shorter summary