Want to dive into Scott Alexander's work and his thousands of blog posts? This fan website lets you sort and do semantic search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Tag: sensitivity analysis

Or pick a range
–
min
Blog
Only
Year
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Tags
Browse all 5379
Include tag...
Exclude tag...
Links to
Filter by linked site (twitter, substack…)
Remember which posts I've read on this device
1 posts
Date
Length
Likes
Comments
forecasting (88) Eliezer Yudkowsky (31) AI development (23) AI timelines (7) compute requirements (4) prediction accuracy (4) scaling laws (3) Tom Davidson (2) Ajeya Cotra (2)

What Happened With Bio Anchors?

Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.

acx
Feb 12, 2026 4,045 words 181 likes 269 comments Listen · 25 min Read Read
Per page:
Showing 1 to 1 of 1 results
Get these search results in an EPUB

Your filters match 1 posts.

Posts to include
–
Leave empty to keep the defaults. Range cannot exceed 500 posts.
Download now

Generates an EPUB right now and downloads it to your device.

Send to email

Generates an EPUB in the background and emails you a temporary download link.

Your email is not shared with anyone.

Email address

To send to your Kindle, just use this link.