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Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits.
Scott Alexander analyzes the astronomical costs and resources needed for future AI models, sparked by Sam Altman's reported $7 trillion fundraising goal.
Scott Alexander argues against Gary Marcus's critique of AI scaling, discussing the potential for future AI capabilities and the nature of human intelligence.
Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add to Home Screen. Read Scott like a free app: tap then Add app to Home screen. Add Read Scott Alexander to your home screen to read it like an app.