Scott Alexander endorses Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, arguing against Trump's authoritarianism while acknowledging and countering arguments that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses Kamala Harris, Oliver, or Stein for the 2024 US presidential election, recommending Harris in swing states and Harris or a third-party candidate in safe states. He argues against Trump primarily on the grounds of authoritarianism, comparing the threat to Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Scott acknowledges the strongest counter-argument that Democrats may be more subtly authoritarian, but ultimately rejects it for four reasons: the importance of punishing clear norm violations, current political headwinds favoring the right, personal integrity, and Trump's own authoritarian tendencies. The post ends with a reflection on the psychological tendency to view elections as a two-character drama between oneself and the Democratic Party, urging readers to consider the full comparison between candidates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against conservatives adopting cancel culture tactics, presenting practical reasons why this approach would be counterproductive and harmful. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the recent debate among conservatives about whether to adopt cancel culture tactics against their opponents. He argues against this approach, presenting several practical considerations. These include the ineffectiveness of persecution in teaching lessons, the historical context of cancel culture, the similarity between left and right attitudes, the prevalence of friendly fire in cancellations, the negative impact on competence and institutions, and the strategic downsides for conservatives. Scott suggests alternative approaches to addressing cancel culture, emphasizing the need for principled and incremental progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander proposes that political hyperpartisanship might be a form of trauma, comparing PTSD symptoms to behaviors observed in political extremists. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the idea that political extremism might be a form of trauma. He compares symptoms of PTSD to behaviors observed in politically hyperpartisan individuals, such as triggers, distorted cognitions, and hypervigilance. The post discusses how trapped priors in the brain might explain both cognitive and emotional aspects of political extremism. Scott also considers the implications of framing political partisanship as trauma, including potential risks of expanding the concept of trauma. Shorter summary

Commenters provide additional context and debate points from Scott Alexander's review of a Putin biography, covering Putin's rise, the author's objectivity, and comparisons to US politics. Longer summary

This post summarizes comments on Scott Alexander's review of a Putin biography. The comments provide additional context and perspectives on Putin's rise to power, question the objectivity of the book's author Masha Gessen, suggest Putin may be slightly less bad than portrayed, discuss Putin as a culture warrior, and express concern about the potential for US intelligence agencies to undermine democracy. Key points include the importance of Russia's economic collapse in the 1990s for Putin's popularity, debates over Gessen's bias and reliability, alternative explanations for some seemingly suspicious events, Putin's alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church, and discussion of whether US agencies like the FBI/CIA could potentially act in ways similar to Russia's FSB. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of Vladimir Putin, tracing his rise to power and methods of maintaining control in Russia. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise Of Vladimir Putin' by Masha Gessen, detailing Putin's life from childhood to his rise to power in Russia. It covers his KGB career, his unexpected ascent in politics, and his methods of consolidating power, including potential involvement in apartment bombings. The review also discusses Putin's shift towards conservative values and ends with reflections on whether a similar rise to dictatorship could happen in the US. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a collection of diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. Scott Alexander covers AI developments, historical events, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. He touches on subjects like AI safety concerns, social media effects on mental health, mask efficacy debates, and potential shifts in 'woke' culture. The post also includes interesting anecdotes, thought experiments, and statistical analyses on topics ranging from medieval Mali to modern dating dynamics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to reader comments on his culture wars article, addressing various topics including 4chan history, transgender issues, feminism, dating apps, and internet censorship. Longer summary

This post highlights various comments on Scott's previous article about online culture wars. It covers topics such as the history of 4chan, the role of transgender issues in culture wars, the decline of feminism discourse, the impact of dating apps on social interactions, internet censorship, and the evolution of online movements. Scott responds to these comments, often agreeing with some points while remaining skeptical of others. He also reflects on how his own perspective might be limited by his age and experiences. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the current cultural climate, comparing it to historical norms of ideological conformity and discussing strategies to maintain intellectual freedom. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the current cultural moment, comparing it to historical periods of ideological conformity rather than extreme events like witch hunts. He argues that we're exiting a rare period of high freedom of thought and may be returning to a more typical state of subtle repression. Scott discusses the oversupply of angry tweets versus substantive action, the importance of maintaining hope in the face of authoritarianism, and reasons for optimism based on historical precedents. He also points out the need for more coherent principles in opposing 'cancel culture' and suggests studying historical transitions from repressive to open societies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the evolution of online culture wars from atheism to feminism to race, analyzing the dynamics of these shifts and speculating on future trends. Longer summary

Scott Alexander traces the evolution of online culture wars from New Atheism through feminism to the current focus on race, examining how each movement rose and fell in popularity. He analyzes the dynamics of these shifts using concepts like fashion cycles and signaling theory, and speculates on the future trajectory of culture war topics. The post explores how terms like 'SJW' and 'woke' impacted discourse, the rise and potential decline of New Socialism, and draws parallels to longer-term cycles of mainstream institutional values. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander suggests Republicans should focus on fighting cultural classism to broaden their appeal and unite their base. Longer summary

Scott Alexander proposes a strategy for the Republican Party to pivot towards fighting classism as a way to maintain relevance and appeal to a broader base. He suggests that the party should focus on the cultural aspects of class rather than economic ones, positioning themselves as champions of the working class against the upper class. The post outlines several potential policy areas, including reforming higher education, challenging the concept of expertise, critiquing upper-class media, and reframing the debate on 'wokeness' as a class issue. Alexander argues that this approach could unite various Republican constituencies and potentially attract new voters, including minorities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links covering AI, economics, politics, science, and culture, offering brief comments and insights on each topic. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various news articles, studies, and interesting tidbits. It covers a wide range of topics including AI, economics, politics, science, and culture. Some notable items include: a new AI that draws pictures based on captions, a study on the effectiveness of ballpoint pens for emergency tracheotomies, the cancellation of a basic income experiment, weaknesses in Xi Jinping's rule, and a study showing Hitler's speeches didn't measurably increase Nazi support. The post also touches on topics like climate change, antimalarial bed nets, polygenic scores for disease risk, and a replication of a famous psychology study on smiling and happiness. The tone is informative and occasionally humorous, with Scott providing brief comments or insights on many of the links. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes a Boston Review article on futurism for focusing on identity politics rather than substantive future predictions, arguing this approach trivializes important technological and societal developments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques an article from Boston Review about futurism, highlighting five main issues. He argues that the article fails to make real arguments about the future, misunderstands the concept of Singularity, wrongly associates certain technologies with privilege, falsely portrays conflict between different futurist groups, and grossly underestimates the impact of potential future changes. Scott contrasts this with his view of futurism as a serious endeavor to improve the human condition and prepare for potentially massive changes. He expresses frustration that much current discourse about the future focuses on identity politics rather than substantive issues, drawing a parallel with an 18th-century futurist novel that was more concerned with religious prejudice than imagining actual changes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander attends the Effective Altruism Global 2017 conference, describing both the practical charity work and bizarre philosophical speculations of the movement, ultimately admiring their genuine commitment to doing good. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his experience at the Effective Altruism Global 2017 conference in San Francisco. He details the impressive scale of charitable work being done by various EA organizations, but also highlights the more unusual and philosophical aspects of the movement. These range from concerns about wild animal suffering to speculations about consciousness and fundamental physics. Scott reflects on how the EA movement combines practical, data-driven charity work with deeply weird philosophical explorations. He concludes by expressing admiration for the genuine goodness and dedication of the EA community, seeing them as a bright spot in a troubled world. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the difficulties in creating consistent free speech norms beyond legal protections, proposing guidelines and emphasizing the role of community consensus. Longer summary

This post explores the complexities of establishing coherent principles around free speech norms beyond governmental protections. Scott Alexander discusses the challenges of balancing opinion expression, propensity signaling, and speech acts, using various examples to illustrate the nuances. He proposes some potential guidelines, such as allowing controversial opinions if they don't lead to dangerous actions, and not enforcing idiosyncratic rules through punishment. The post concludes by emphasizing the importance of community consensus in establishing norms and the need for clear rules in different types of communities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses a couples therapy case to explore how cultural defaults influence our judgments on relationship issues, reflecting on the importance of culture wars in shaping societal norms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a couples therapy case involving two gay men, Adam and Steve, who disagree about non-monogamy. Adam wants to engage in kinky activities outside their marriage, while Steve insists on monogamy. Scott uses this case to explore how cultural defaults influence our judgments in such situations. He argues that in different time periods or subcultures, the 'right' answer would be clear, but our current diverse culture makes it ambiguous. Scott reflects on how this realization has made him more understanding of both cultural activists and conservatives, as they are essentially fighting to set these cultural defaults. He concludes by acknowledging the importance of culture wars in shaping societal norms, while also apologizing for potentially reinforcing stereotypes about gay couples in his example. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the parallels between social justice and anti-social justice groups, arguing that shared experiences of perceived persecution could lead to better understanding and less conflict. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the similarities between social justice and anti-social justice narratives, showing how both groups often feel persecuted and develop similar defensive mechanisms. He argues that this shared experience of perceived threat, even when statistically unlikely, leads to hypervigilance and extreme reactions from both sides. Scott suggests that as both groups now face similar challenges, there may be an opportunity for mutual understanding and the development of protocols to prevent escalation. He advises against dismissing the fears of either side and proposes that recognizing the shared experience of fear could lead to more productive dialogue. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how issues become politicized along tribal lines, preventing rational discussion and leading to counterproductive behaviors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses how various issues become politicized and tied to tribal narratives, using examples like the Ebola quarantine debate, the Rotherham scandal, and climate change. He argues that when issues become referendums on tribal identity, it prevents rational discussion and leads to counterproductive behaviors. He suggests that framing issues in ways that respect out-group narratives could help, but notes this rarely happens due to media incentives. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander, though pro-gay rights, criticizes the suspension of Phil Robertson for his comments, arguing for broader societal tolerance of differing views beyond legal requirements. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to a post by JT criticizing defenders of Phil Robertson, who was suspended for his comments about homosexuality. Scott, while being pro-gay rights, expresses concern about Robertson's suspension. He argues that although freedom of speech doesn't legally bind private actors, there's a societal need for tolerance of differing views beyond legal requirements. He draws parallels with religious freedom and warns against normalizing punishment for expressing opinions, suggesting it could backfire on minority groups like atheists or gay people. Scott emphasizes the importance of counterarguments over punitive actions in ideological debates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his Anti-Reactionary FAQ, addressing focus on recent trends, class gaps, sexual norms, equality, tone, and the concept of the Cathedral. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his Anti-Reactionary FAQ, addressing several key points: 1) His focus on 50-year trends rather than comparing to preindustrial society, 2) The gap between upper and lower class outcomes, 3) His arguments about sluttiness and contraception, 4) Issues around equality of opportunity vs results, 5) Tone arguments, and 6) The concept of the Cathedral. He defends some of his original points while acknowledging areas where critics made good arguments. Scott also explores why social indicators worsened from the 60s-80s but have improved since, and discusses how progressive values might be extended to lower classes. Shorter summary