Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's Compute-Centric Framework (CCF) for AI takeoff speeds, which models how quickly AI capabilities might progress. The model predicts a gradual but fast takeoff, with AI going from automating 20% of jobs to 100% in about 3 years, reaching superintelligence within a year after that. Scott discusses the key parameters of the model, its implications, and how it compares to other AI forecasting approaches. He notes that while the model predicts a 'gradual' takeoff, it still describes a rapid and potentially dangerous progression of AI capabilities. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides evidence that many prominent AI researchers are concerned about AI risk, contrary to claims in some popular articles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to articles claiming that AI researchers are not concerned about AI risk by providing a list of prominent AI researchers who have expressed concerns about the potential risks of advanced AI. He argues that there isn't a clear divide between 'skeptics' and 'believers', but rather a general consensus that some preliminary work on AI safety is needed. The post highlights that the main differences lie in the timeline for AI development and when preparations should begin, not whether the risks are real. Shorter summary