Scott Alexander challenges the idea of an 'AI race', comparing AI to other transformative technologies and discussing scenarios where the race concept might apply. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the notion of an 'AI race' between countries, suggesting that most technologies, including potentially AI, are not truly races with clear winners. He compares AI to other transformative technologies like electricity, automobiles, and computers, which didn't significantly alter global power balances. The post explains that the concept of an 'AI race' mainly makes sense in two scenarios: the need to align AI before it becomes potentially destructive, or in a 'hard takeoff' scenario where AI rapidly self-improves. Scott criticizes those who simultaneously dismiss alignment concerns while emphasizing the need to 'win' the AI race. He also discusses post-singularity scenarios, arguing that many current concerns would likely become irrelevant in such a radically transformed world. Shorter summary