Scott Alexander critiques Tyler Cowen's use of the 'Safe Uncertainty Fallacy' in discussing AI risk, arguing that uncertainty doesn't justify complacency.
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Scott Alexander critiques Tyler Cowen's use of the 'Safe Uncertainty Fallacy' in relation to AI risk. This fallacy argues that because a situation is completely uncertain, it will be fine. Scott explains why this reasoning is flawed, using examples like the printing press and alien starships to illustrate his points. He argues that even in uncertain situations, we need to make best guesses and not default to assuming everything will be fine. Scott criticizes Cowen's lack of specific probability estimates and argues that claiming total uncertainty is intellectually dishonest. The post ends with a satirical twist on Cowen's conclusion about society being designed to 'take the plunge' with new technologies.
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