How to explore Scott Alexander's work and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

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Oct 29, 2024
acx

The Case Against California Proposition 36

21 min • 2,849 words • Comments pending • podcast (17 min)
The post argues against California's Proposition 36, claiming it will increase imprisonment without effectively reducing crime or drug use, and suggests alternative solutions. Longer summary
This post argues against California's Proposition 36, which aims to increase mandatory sentences for certain drug and theft crimes. The author contends that while Prop 36 will certainly imprison more people, it won't effectively combat crime. The post analyzes the proposition's impact on drug-related offenses and theft, using data to show that increased sentencing doesn't correlate with reduced drug use or crime rates. It also points out the lack of treatment resources required by the proposition and the potential negative impact on existing crime prevention programs. The author suggests that instead of longer sentences, California should focus on targeted interventions, increased police resources, and expanding treatment options for drug addiction. Shorter summary
Apr 19, 2024
acx

ACX Survey Results 2024

4 min • 423 words • 309 comments • 54 likes
Scott Alexander shares the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, providing access to data and promising future analyses. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, which had 5,981 participants. He provides links to the survey questions and results, and offers a downloadable dataset of responses from those who agreed to share their data publicly. Scott mentions that more detailed analyses will be published throughout the year, and invites readers to explore the data themselves. He also notes some measures taken to protect respondents' anonymity in the public dataset. Shorter summary
Feb 21, 2024
acx

Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory

79 min • 10,961 words • 461 comments • 88 likes • podcast (57 min)
Scott Alexander responds to comments on polyamory, providing data and addressing concerns about relationship satisfaction, child-rearing, and abuse risks in poly relationships. Longer summary
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his previous posts about polyamory, addressing various arguments and providing data where possible. He discusses statistics on relationship satisfaction and child-rearing in poly vs. monogamous relationships, addresses concerns about abuse risks, and shares personal observations. The post touches on cultural perceptions of polyamory, its prevalence among different groups, and potential societal impacts. Scott also reflects on some new insights he gained from the discussion, particularly around child-rearing in poly relationships and abuse risks. Shorter summary
Feb 15, 2024
acx

X Fact Check: Does Gender Integration Moderate Politics?

4 min • 477 words • 630 comments • 142 likes • podcast (5 min)
Scott Alexander tests a hypothesis about gender integration moderating political views using his survey data, finding no significant effect of sibling gender on political attitudes. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines a claim about gender differences in political attitudes and tests a hypothesis using data from his 2022 survey. The post discusses a reported growing political gap between men and women, and a proposed explanation that increased gender integration might moderate political views. Scott tests this by comparing political attitudes of men and women with only brothers or only sisters. The results show no significant effect, suggesting that sibling gender doesn't influence political views in the way proposed. Scott also discusses potential limitations of using his survey data and mentions other explanations and challenges to the original finding. Shorter summary
Jan 20, 2023
acx

ACX Survey Results 2022

4 min • 514 words • 504 comments • 66 likes • podcast (3 min)
Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2022 ACX survey, providing links to questions, results, and downloadable datasets, with notes on privacy measures and future analyses. Longer summary
This post announces the results of the 2022 Astral Codex Ten survey, which had 7,341 participants. Scott Alexander provides links to the survey questions and results, and offers downloadable datasets for public use. He mentions that more detailed analyses will be published over the coming year. The post also includes information on data anonymization measures taken to protect respondents' privacy, and notes some limitations and peculiarities in the data collection process. Scott encourages readers to explore the data themselves and offers to provide more complete information upon request. Shorter summary
Jan 10, 2023
acx

Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest

3 min • 291 words • 84 comments • 40 likes • podcast (3 min)
Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 of the 2023 Prediction Contest, encouraging participants to use any resources to make accurate predictions. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces Stage 2 ('Full Mode') of the 2023 Prediction Contest, following the closure of Stage 1 ('Blind Mode'). In this stage, participants are encouraged to use any resources available to make accurate predictions, including personal research, prediction markets, forecasting tournaments, and the 3295 blind mode answers from Stage 1. Scott provides suggestions on how to use these resources and emphasizes that there's no such thing as cheating, except for time travel or harming competitors. He also mentions that the form will ask for a brief description of the strategy used. Shorter summary
Aug 11, 2022
acx

Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything?

9 min • 1,246 words • 867 comments • 174 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott Alexander investigates whether non-religious people are more prone to believing conspiracy theories, finding a U-shaped relationship between religiosity and skepticism. Longer summary
Scott Alexander examines the claim that non-religious people are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories and woo. He analyzes various studies on beliefs in UFOs, Bigfoot, and astrology across different religious groups. The results show a more nuanced picture: both strongly religious people and outright atheists are generally less likely to believe in these theories, while those in the middle (weakly religious or agnostic) are more susceptible. Scott discusses possible explanations for this pattern, including intellectual coherence and closed-mindedness. He concludes that the relationship between religiosity and belief in conspiracy theories is more complex than commonly assumed. Shorter summary
Jun 29, 2022
acx

Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko

69 min • 9,632 words • 537 comments • 65 likes • podcast (65 min)
Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his 'San Fransicko' book review, covering homelessness, crime statistics, and urban policy debates. Longer summary
This post is a collection of highlights from reader comments on Scott Alexander's review of the book 'San Fransicko'. It covers various topics related to homelessness, crime, and urban policy in San Francisco and other cities. The comments provide additional context, personal anecdotes, data analysis, and critiques of both the book and Scott's review. Key themes include the complexity of homelessness, issues with crime statistics, debates over housing policy, and differing perspectives on how to address urban problems. Shorter summary
Feb 08, 2022
acx

Two Small Corrections And Updates

2 min • 231 words • 12 comments • 15 likes • podcast (3 min)
Scott offers corrections about Polymarket's status and updates on the 2022 prediction contest, including calls for collaboration and ideas. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides two corrections and updates to previous posts. First, he clarifies that Polymarket is still operational, offering real-money markets outside the US and working on a US-compliant product. Second, he reminds readers about the 2022 prediction contest entry deadline and shares a message from the contest organizers about potential collaborations with prediction markets and ideas for using the contest data. Shorter summary
Feb 17, 2020
ssc

Sleep Support: An Individual Randomized Controlled Trial

10 min • 1,268 words • 88 comments • podcast (10 min)
Scott Alexander conducts a personal randomized controlled trial of a sleep supplement, finding no significant effect over placebo, but gains insights into his sleep patterns. Longer summary
Scott Alexander conducts a personal randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of a sleep supplement called Sleep Support. Initially, he experiences a dramatic improvement in his sleep patterns, but decides to rigorously test this effect. He designs an experiment using placebo pills and blind administration over 24 nights. Surprisingly, the results show no significant difference between the Sleep Support and placebo nights in terms of sleep duration, wake-up time, or subjective measures. Scott concludes that his initial perceived improvement was likely due to the placebo effect and the act of not checking the clock upon waking. Despite the supplement not outperforming placebo, Scott considers the experiment a success as it led to improved sleep habits. Shorter summary
Jan 28, 2020
ssc

Assortative Mating And Autism

9 min • 1,147 words • 108 comments • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes survey data to investigate whether assortative mating among highly analytical people increases autism risk in their children, finding no significant evidence for this hypothesis. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates whether assortative mating among highly analytical people in Silicon Valley increases the risk of autism in their children. He uses data from the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, which included 8,043 respondents from highly analytical backgrounds. The study found that while the sample had higher rates of autism (4-8%) than the general population (2.5-5%), there was no significant increase in autism rates among children of couples where both partners were highly analytical. The autism rate for children in the sample was 3.7-5.2%, with only 0.6% having severe autism. Scott concludes that while the study has limitations, it provides evidence against strong versions of the assortative mating hypothesis for autism risk. Shorter summary
Jan 20, 2020
ssc

SSC Survey Results 2020

4 min • 498 words • 174 comments • podcast (5 min)
Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, including links to data, privacy measures, and future analysis plans. Longer summary
This post announces the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, which received 8,043 responses. Scott Alexander provides links to the survey questions and aggregated results, addresses privacy concerns by removing long-answer questions from public view, and offers downloadable datasets for those interested in analyzing the data themselves. He mentions plans for publishing more complex analyses over the coming year. The post also includes the results of a game from the survey, 'Prisoner's Dilemma Against Your Clone', and instructions for the winner to claim their prize. Shorter summary
Sep 09, 2019
ssc

[Partial Retraction] Age Gaps and Birth Order Effects

5 min • 671 words • 21 comments • podcast (6 min)
Scott Alexander partially retracts and corrects his previous findings on age gaps and birth order effects after errors were identified in his analysis. Longer summary
Scott Alexander partially retracts his previous findings on age gaps and birth order effects. He acknowledges that Bucky, a Less Wrong user, found errors in his analysis of SSC survey data. While the original conclusion about firstborn children being overrepresented in high-openness STEM types remains valid, the specific findings about age gaps were partially incorrect. Scott explains the errors, presents Bucky's corrected analysis, and discusses the implications. He emphasizes the importance of data transparency and encourages readers to double-check his work. Shorter summary
Jun 17, 2019
ssc

Followup On The Baumol Effect: Thanks, O Baumol

14 min • 1,940 words • 186 comments • podcast (15 min)
Scott Alexander follows up on his critique of a book about the Baumol effect, presenting data that challenges the book's claims about rising wages driving cost increases in education and healthcare. Longer summary
Scott Alexander follows up on his review of Tabarrok and Helland's book about the Baumol effect and rising costs in education and healthcare. He expresses disappointment with Tabarrok's response to his critique and further explores the issues. Scott presents data showing that wages in high-productivity sectors and for doctors and teachers have not risen as much as claimed, which challenges the book's central thesis. He also clarifies his understanding of how the Baumol effect can make things less affordable for individuals even if not for society as a whole. The post analyzes various data sources and graphs to support these points, maintaining a critical stance towards the original book's arguments. Shorter summary
May 14, 2019
ssc

Age Gaps And Birth Order Effects

12 min • 1,636 words • 191 comments • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes birth order effects in SSC readers, finding strong effects for sibling age gaps of 1-7 years, with a significant drop-off after 7 years. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates birth order effects using data from the 2019 Slate Star Codex survey. He finds that firstborns are overrepresented among SSC readers, replicating previous findings. The study focuses on how age gaps between siblings affect this birth order effect. Results show strong effects for age gaps of 1-7 years, with a dramatic decrease for gaps larger than 7 years. Scott discusses possible explanations for these findings, including intra-family competition and parental investment hypotheses. He notes that the results don't seem consistent with some other proposed mechanisms like maternal antibodies or vitamin deficiencies. The post ends with a call for further replication and expansion of these results. Shorter summary
Jan 15, 2019
ssc

Kernel Of Doubt: Testing Math Preference Vs. Corn-Eating Style

9 min • 1,212 words • 98 comments • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander tests the claim that mathematicians' preference for algebra or analysis predicts their corn-eating style, finding no significant correlation in a survey of over 2,600 respondents. Longer summary
Scott Alexander investigates a claim made by Ben Tilly that mathematicians' preference for algebra or analysis predicts how they eat corn (in rows or spirals). Scott included questions about math preference and corn-eating style in his 2019 Slate Star Codex reader survey. Analyzing 2,683 responses, including a subset of PhD mathematicians, he found no significant correlation between math preference and corn-eating style, contradicting Tilly's observation. Scott suggests the original claim might be due to the power of suggestion or selective memory. He also explores demographic factors influencing corn-eating styles, finding some cultural differences but no clear explanation for the variability. Shorter summary
Jan 13, 2019
ssc

SSC Survey Results 2019

2 min • 161 words • 347 comments • podcast (3 min)
Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2019 Slate Star Codex survey, providing links to the questions, results, and downloadable public datasets. Longer summary
This post announces the results of the 2019 Slate Star Codex survey, which was completed by 8,171 people. Scott Alexander provides links to view the survey questions and results, and mentions that more detailed analyses will be published over the coming year. He also offers downloadable datasets of the public responses for those who want to investigate the data themselves, noting that these datasets exclude some sensitive information and may not exactly match the full version. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2018
ssc

Working With Google Trends

13 min • 1,706 words • 52 comments • podcast (14 min)
Scott Alexander investigates the complexities of using Google Trends for mental health research, proposing methods to improve accuracy and interpretation of search data. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the challenges and nuances of using Google Trends for research, focusing on mental health-related searches. He demonstrates how individual keywords can be misleading and suggests averaging multiple related terms. Scott introduces a two-factor theory: one representing students' intellectual interest in mental health, which is declining, and another representing people with mental health issues, which is increasing. He discusses potential issues like temporal autocorrelation and provides tips for using Google Trends effectively, including the importance of considering school-related search patterns and the lack of need to adjust for general intellectual decline on the Internet. Shorter summary
Oct 04, 2018
ssc

Nighttime Ventilation Survey Results

5 min • 616 words • 26 comments • podcast (7 min)
Scott Alexander reports on a survey about nighttime ventilation interventions, finding modest overall improvements but some individual success stories. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents the results of a survey on nighttime ventilation conducted after his previous post on carbon dioxide levels. The survey, with 129 participants, explored various interventions to improve sleep quality by reducing CO2 levels. While the overall results were modest, with an average improvement of 1.4 on a 0-5 scale, some participants reported significant benefits. The most common intervention was sleeping with an open window. Despite the underwhelming results, most participants planned to continue their interventions. Scott concludes that the results are essentially negative, both for nighttime ventilation and for the reliability of informal blog surveys in producing confident data. Shorter summary
Feb 22, 2018
ssc

Highlights From The Comments On Technological Unemployment

29 min • 3,940 words • 178 comments • podcast (29 min)
Scott summarizes and responds to comments on his technological unemployment article, covering various debates, critiques, and potential explanations for observed trends. Longer summary
This post summarizes comments on Scott's previous article about technological unemployment. It covers various perspectives on the topic, including debates about the pace of technological change, the impact of women entering the workforce, the role of disability benefits, issues with data interpretation, historical comparisons, and potential future scenarios. Scott also addresses some critiques of his original analysis and acknowledges areas where further research is needed. Shorter summary
Jan 26, 2018
ssc

SSC Survey Data On Models Of Political Conflict

10 min • 1,278 words • 238 comments • podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes SSC survey data to explore the conflict vs. mistake theory distinction in political disagreements, finding that Marxists and the alt-right tend more towards conflict theory than other groups. Longer summary
Scott Alexander analyzes data from the SSC survey to explore the distinction between conflict theory and mistake theory in political disagreements. The post presents various survey questions that tap into this distinction and shows correlations between responses. Results indicate that Marxists and the alt-right tend more towards conflict theory, while libertarians and liberals lean more towards mistake theory. The analysis also explores relationships between conflict theory tendencies and various demographic factors, finding some weak correlations with financial situation, self-perceived morality, and certain personality traits. Shorter summary
Jan 03, 2018
ssc

SSC Survey Results 2018

3 min • 293 words • 438 comments
Scott Alexander shares the results and data from the 2018 SSC Survey, which received over 8,000 responses, and invites readers to explore the findings. Longer summary
Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2018 SSC Survey, which received 8,077 responses. He provides links to view the survey questions, results, and a comparison survey conducted on Mechanical Turk. Scott also shares downloadable data files for the 7,298 respondents who agreed to have their responses shared publicly. He mentions plans to post longer analyses later, including those related to pre-registered hypotheses, and invites readers to investigate the data themselves. Shorter summary
May 17, 2017
ssc

Polyamory Is Not Polygyny

7 min • 968 words • 791 comments
Scott Alexander uses survey data to challenge claims that polyamory leads to a few men monopolizing women, showing these criticisms don't match reality in practice. Longer summary
Scott Alexander addresses criticisms of polyamory from both conservative and pickup artist perspectives, which claim it leads to a few high-status men monopolizing women. Using survey data from the Less Wrong community, he shows these criticisms don't match reality. The data suggests poly women have more partners on average than poly men, and poly men are less likely to be single than monogamous men. Scott acknowledges potential biases in the data but argues it still contradicts the critics' theories. He invites critics to suggest what data would convince them in future surveys. Shorter summary
Mar 17, 2017
ssc

SSC Survey 2017 Results

30 min • 4,078 words • 697 comments
Scott Alexander presents and analyzes the results of the 2017 Slate Star Codex reader survey, revealing demographic and psychological insights about the blog's audience. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2017 Slate Star Codex (SSC) reader survey, which gathered responses from 5,500 people. The post provides detailed breakdowns of demographics, opinions, and various psychological and behavioral traits of SSC readers. Scott also compares some of these results to a smaller sample of Mechanical Turk users. The data reveals interesting insights about the SSC readership, including their political leanings, educational background, and mental health statistics. Scott encourages readers to further analyze the publicly available dataset. Shorter summary
Jan 11, 2017
ssc

Heuristics Work Until They Don’t

8 min • 1,067 words • 350 comments
Scott Alexander warns against forming strong heuristics based on limited data, using examples from AI research, elections, and campaign strategies to illustrate the pitfalls of this approach. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the dangers of forming strong heuristics based on limited data points. He presents three examples: AI research progress, election predictions, and campaign strategies. In each case, he shows how people formed confident heuristics after observing patterns in just one or two instances, only to be surprised when these heuristics failed. The post argues against treating life events as moral parables and instead advocates for viewing them as individual data points that may not necessarily generalize. Scott uses a mix of statistical reasoning, historical examples, and cultural references to illustrate his points. Shorter summary