Scott Alexander reviews the evidence for declining sperm counts, discussing major studies, criticisms, and potential causes, while remaining uncertain about the true extent and reasons for any decline. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence for declining sperm counts worldwide, discussing the major studies, potential causes, and criticisms of the hypothesis. He explores the methodology of sperm count studies, regional variations, possible explanations like plastics and pesticides, and animal data. While acknowledging the noisy data and potential confounders, he concludes that there's suggestive evidence for a decline but remains uncertain about its magnitude and causes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various obscure pregnancy interventions that could potentially improve child outcomes, particularly IQ. He rates them in tiers based on evidence strength and potential impact, with Tier 1 being most strongly supported. Key interventions discussed include embryo selection, choline supplementation, avoiding stress and certain substances, and optimizing birth timing. He emphasizes these are extreme measures not meant to induce guilt, and that standard pregnancy advice is still most important. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the current research on Long COVID, examining its prevalence, symptoms, duration, and impact on different groups. He explores various studies, discusses potential mechanisms, and evaluates the psychosomatic argument. The post concludes with an assessment of personal risk and comparisons to other post-viral syndromes, emphasizing the uncertainties still surrounding Long COVID. Shorter summary

Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary

Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander directs readers to his essay on Works in Progress examining why suicide rates didn't increase during the COVID-19 pandemic as expected. Longer summary

Scott Alexander refers readers to his essay published on Works in Progress, which discusses the unexpected trend of suicides during the COVID-19 pandemic. The essay, titled 'Why didn't suicides rise during Covid?', likely explores the counterintuitive finding that suicide rates did not increase as many had predicted during the global health crisis. While the post itself doesn't provide details, it suggests an in-depth analysis of suicide statistics, mental health trends, and potential explanations for this phenomenon during the pandemic. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews evidence on face mask effectiveness against coronavirus, concluding they likely offer some protection despite CDC recommendations against general public use. Longer summary

This post examines the effectiveness of face masks in preventing coronavirus transmission. It reviews theoretical reasons, case-control studies, randomized trials, and laboratory studies on surgical masks and N95 respirators. The author concludes that while not perfect, surgical masks likely offer some protection against infection in high-risk situations. The post also discusses the CDC's recommendations against mask use for the general public, suggesting this may be due to high standards of proof in medical communication rather than intentional deception. The author ultimately recommends considering mask use in high-risk situations if supplies are not limited, while emphasizing that masks are not a substitute for avoiding such situations when possible. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence, discussing genetic and environmental factors, and proposing explanatory models for the observed lower IQ in autistic individuals despite genetic links to higher intelligence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence. While genetic studies show a link between autism risk genes and high IQ, autistic individuals generally have lower intelligence than neurotypical controls. The post discusses three main causes of autism: common 'familial' genes that increase IQ, rare 'de novo' mutations that are often detrimental, and non-genetic factors like obstetric complications. Scott examines various studies and proposes that even after adjusting for mutations and environmental factors, autism still seems to decrease IQ. He introduces a 'tower-vs-foundation' model to explain this phenomenon, where intelligence needs a strong foundation to support it, and an imbalance can lead to autism. The post concludes with a list of findings and their associated confidence levels. Shorter summary

The post critically examines the impact of India's 1991 economic reforms, suggesting that the country's economic growth began earlier and that the causes are more complex than commonly believed. Longer summary

This post examines the economic reforms in India and their impact on poverty reduction and economic growth. The author challenges the widely held belief that the 1991 reforms were the primary cause of India's economic boom. By analyzing various studies and economic data, the post suggests that India's growth trajectory began earlier, possibly in the mid-1970s or early 1980s. The exact causes of this growth remain unclear, with various factors such as trade liberalization, public investment, and political attitudes towards business being potential contributors. The author also discusses the potential impact of socialist policies on developing countries and the importance of understanding these economic shifts for future policy-making and arguments against certain forms of socialism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the history of increasing competitiveness in college admissions, analyzing causes and questioning whether the focus on elite college admission is justified. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the history of college admissions and the increasing competitiveness in recent years. He traces the evolution from a time when top colleges admitted almost anyone qualified to the current highly competitive landscape. The post examines various factors contributing to this change, including increased applications per student, changing demographics, and shifts in evaluation criteria. Scott also investigates whether the intense focus on college admissions is justified, given research suggesting that attending a selective college may not significantly impact most students' long-term outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes. Longer summary

This post examines the progress made in the 'War on Cancer' by analyzing cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year survival rates. Scott Alexander explores two competing narratives: one suggesting significant progress and another claiming limited success. He delves into the data, considering factors like age adjustment, smoking trends, and early detection biases. The analysis reveals that while some improvements are due to social factors like reduced smoking, there's evidence of genuine progress in cancer treatment. Stage-specific survival rates have improved, and studies adjusting for various confounders still show advancements. The post concludes that while progress may not meet the grand expectations set in the past, there has been a gradual but real improvement in cancer treatment and outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of melatonin, its effects, and proper usage. He explains that melatonin functions as both a hypnotic (inducing sleep) and a chronobiotic (shifting circadian rhythms). The post covers optimal dosing (0.3 mg, much lower than commonly available doses), use in treating circadian rhythm disorders, jet lag, and potential connections to other psychiatric conditions like seasonal affective disorder and depression. Scott also discusses personal experiences with melatonin, including its tendency to cause early waking and vivid dreams in some people. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the arguments for and against technological unemployment, analyzing labor force participation rates, manufacturing job losses, and economic data to determine if automation is currently causing significant job displacement. He concludes that while there's little evidence of technological unemployment happening right now, there are signs of 'technological underemployment' where automation is pushing workers from middle-skill to lower-skill jobs. The long-term impacts remain uncertain, with economists divided on whether this is a temporary adjustment or a new normal. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the risks of Adderall use, analyzing medical, addiction, tolerance, and neurotoxicity concerns, concluding that the benefits outweigh the risks for well-informed patients. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the risks of Adderall use, examining medical risks, addiction potential, tolerance development, and possible neurotoxicity. He critically analyzes existing research and shares his clinical experience, ultimately concluding that while there are some concerning risks, they are not severe enough to stop prescribing stimulants to patients who might benefit from them, provided they are well-informed about the risks. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines pharmacogenomic testing for antidepressants, particularly the GeneSight test, expressing skepticism about its current effectiveness and validity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critically examines the field of pharmacogenomics for antidepressants, particularly focusing on the GeneSight test. He reviews the scientific evidence, discusses potential flaws in studies, and expresses skepticism about the current state and effectiveness of such testing. The post delves into the complexities of antidepressant metabolism, the challenges of predicting drug response, and the limitations of current genetic testing approaches. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, examining Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms, while expressing uncertainty about claimed long-term impacts on adult earnings. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, focusing on Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms. He explores studies showing teachers account for about 10% of variance in student test scores, with effects decaying quickly over time. However, some controversial studies claim long-term impacts on adult earnings. Scott examines methodological issues, potential biases, and alternative explanations, ultimately expressing uncertainty about the validity of these long-term effects. He suggests non-cognitive factors like behavior might explain persistent impacts if they exist, but remains skeptical given the contrast with research showing minimal parental influence on outcomes. Shorter summary

Scott examines evidence for racial bias in the US criminal justice system, finding some bias in certain areas but not others, and concluding that claims of pervasive racism are overstated. Longer summary

This post analyzes racial bias in the US criminal justice system, reviewing studies on various aspects like police stops, arrests, prosecutions, and sentencing. Scott finds evidence of racial bias in some areas (e.g. capital punishment, sentence length) but little or no bias in others (e.g. arrests for violent crimes, prosecutions). He concludes that while there is some racial bias, claims of pervasive systemic racism are overstated. However, he notes that even without explicit bias, the system can still disproportionately harm black people through indirect means like drug laws or poverty-related factors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of Alcoholics Anonymous, finding it and other treatments only marginally better than no treatment, based on flawed and inconclusive studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the evidence on Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) effectiveness, finding most studies to be flawed or inconclusive. He notes that AA seems to work about as well as other treatments, but only slightly better than no treatment at all. The post explores various studies, their methodologies, and their limitations, ultimately concluding that while AA and other treatments may help, their effects are small and often indistinguishable from each other or from brief interventions by doctors. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes various criticisms of antidepressants, concluding they have modest but real benefits over placebo, with important considerations about side effects and efficacy. Longer summary

This post examines various criticisms of SSRIs and antidepressants, addressing claims about their efficacy, side effects, and comparisons to placebo and psychotherapy. Scott analyzes studies on antidepressant effectiveness, discussing issues like publication bias, effect sizes, and the meaning of 'clinical significance'. He explores side effects, particularly sexual dysfunction, weight gain, and emotional blunting. The post concludes that while antidepressants are not miracle drugs, they do have a modest but statistically significant benefit over placebo and can be a reasonable option for many people with depression, especially if they understand and prepare for potential side effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines various anti-wheat claims and pro-wheat evidence, concluding that while some concerns exist, current evidence generally supports wheat consumption for most people. Longer summary

Scott Alexander investigates the claims against wheat consumption, examining various arguments such as gluten sensitivity, intestinal permeability, wheat-derived opiates, connections to autism and schizophrenia, genetic modifications, and leptin resistance. He analyzes scientific studies and expert opinions, finding some claims to be partially true but often exaggerated or of uncertain significance. He also explores pro-wheat arguments, noting strong evidence for whole grain benefits but acknowledging potential confounders. The post concludes that while there are some concerns about wheat, the best evidence currently supports its inclusion in most people's diets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines evidence on marijuana legalization's effects on usage, health, and drug war costs, finding uncertainties too large for firm conclusions but suggesting traffic accidents may be the key factor. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the evidence around marijuana legalization, looking at its effects on usage rates, health impacts, and costs of the drug war. He finds that decriminalization and medical marijuana don't seem to increase youth usage much, but full legalization might increase adult use by 25-50%. Health effects are unclear but may include IQ declines and slightly increased psychosis risk. The costs of the drug war are significant in terms of arrests and spending, but relatively few people are in prison solely for marijuana. Scott attempts a utilitarian analysis comparing costs and benefits of legalization, but finds the uncertainties too large to draw firm conclusions. He suggests the most important factor may be how legalization affects traffic accidents. Shorter summary