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20 posts found
Nov 05, 2024
acx

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

27 min • 3,718 words • Comments pending • podcast (26 min)
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications. Longer summary
This post discusses the intense atmosphere surrounding Election Day in the United States, comparing it to historical spectacles and highlighting the emotional and psychological impact on the population. It then delves into prediction markets and forecasting, particularly focusing on recent events in Polymarket where a large bet by a single individual caused significant market movements. The post also covers legal developments regarding prediction markets, discusses various election-related predictions, and concludes with a poetic reflection on Election Day. Shorter summary
Sep 17, 2024
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Mantic Monday 9/16/24

19 min • 2,607 words • 170 comments • 78 likes • podcast (18 min)
Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary
This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary
Feb 14, 2023
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Ro-mantic Monday 2/13/23

21 min • 2,820 words • 374 comments • 95 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott explores various technological and market-based approaches to dating and relationships, including prediction markets, matching sites, and cryptocurrency concepts. Longer summary
This post discusses various algorithmic and financial approaches to romance, focusing on prediction markets and other creative solutions. Scott examines Aella's date recommendation market, matching checkbox sites, the Luna cryptocurrency dating site concept, and Peter Thiel's insights on social startups. He also reviews some current prediction markets related to dating and relationships. The post concludes with short links about an arranged marriage project and AI chatbot romance. Shorter summary
Jan 31, 2023
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Mantic Monday 1/30/2023

35 min • 4,767 words • 141 comments • 56 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary
Nov 21, 2022
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Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition

33 min • 4,501 words • 253 comments • 68 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary
Oct 18, 2022
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Mantic Monday 10/17/22

28 min • 3,822 words • 133 comments • 59 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary
This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary
Aug 16, 2022
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Mantic Monday 8/15/22

27 min • 3,693 words • 162 comments • 62 likes • podcast (31 min)
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field. Longer summary
This post discusses the recent shutdown of PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, by the CFTC. It explores potential reasons for the shutdown, including suspicions of lobbying by competitor Kalshi. The post also covers new developments in the prediction market space, including Hedgehog Markets allowing user-created markets, a forecasting tournament by the Salem Center and CSPI, and updates on various prediction markets and their forecasts on topics like China-US conflict, AI-generated music, and remote college education. Shorter summary
Jul 12, 2022
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Mantic Monday 7/11/22

13 min • 1,763 words • 278 comments • 57 likes • podcast (14 min)
The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several current events and their related prediction markets. It starts with Trump's chances for the 2024 GOP nomination, which remain high despite recent scandals. The post then discusses the new Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, funded by the Future Fund. It examines prediction markets for Elon Musk's Twitter deal, showing low chances of completion. The post analyzes the impact of the Dobbs decision on Democrats' Senate chances, noting a puzzling delay in market reactions. Finally, it covers various other forecasting topics, including COVID-19 ensemble models, the race to replace Boris Johnson, and predictions about the East African Federation. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2022
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Mantic Monday 6/13/22

14 min • 1,857 words • 154 comments • 50 likes • podcast (17 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting, including monkeypox predictions, updates on the Ukraine-Russia war, AI development forecasts, Elon Musk's potential Twitter acquisition, and various political predictions. Scott discusses Metaculus predictions for monkeypox cases, analyzes forecasts for the Ukraine conflict, examines AI capability predictions in response to a bet between Elon Musk and Gary Marcus, and reviews predictions for US elections and other current events. The post also includes updates on prediction market platforms and recent articles about forecasting. Shorter summary
May 10, 2022
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Mantic Monday 5/9/22

22 min • 3,057 words • 248 comments • 67 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews recent changes in prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, the Supreme Court leak on Roe v. Wade, and other topics. He discusses the usefulness of prediction markets, arguing that their main advantage is not accuracy but trust, aggregation, and clarity. He also describes an experiment in market manipulation on Manifold Markets and its implications. The post concludes with a look at some interesting recent predictions on topics like dog cloning, anti-aging, and Chinese politics. Shorter summary
Apr 18, 2022
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Mantic Monday 4/18/22

16 min • 2,226 words • 463 comments • 45 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events. Longer summary
This post covers several prediction markets and forecasts related to current events. It discusses changes in Ukraine war predictions, nuclear risk estimates, AI development timelines, and other topics like Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition and the French presidential election. Scott analyzes discrepancies between different forecasts and markets, and explores potential reasons for changes in predictions. Shorter summary
Mar 21, 2022
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Mantic Monday 3/21/22

17 min • 2,344 words • 103 comments • 29 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary
Mar 14, 2022
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Mantic Monday 3/14/22

18 min • 2,440 words • 203 comments • 54 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms. Longer summary
This post discusses recent changes in Ukraine-related prediction markets, analyzes the seemingly monotonic decrease in probabilities of Russian success, explores nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares the performance of forecasters vs. domain experts. Scott also covers various short updates on prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary
Feb 14, 2022
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Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold

16 min • 2,133 words • 219 comments • 40 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary
Dec 27, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats

19 min • 2,567 words • 98 comments • 41 likes • podcast (24 min)
Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets. Scott reviews a YouTube explainer on prediction markets, introduces a new market called Futuur, discusses the innovative approach of Mantic Markets, highlights Metaculus' Public Figure Predictions feature, and provides updates on current market predictions for various events. He also shares some short notes on foot voting coordination efforts, a suggestion for using prediction markets in college debates, and Google's new prediction market team. Shorter summary
Dec 20, 2021
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Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You

19 min • 2,525 words • 125 comments • 41 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal prediction market Gleangen, challenges in long-term predictions, conditional markets for policy decisions, and new weight loss drugs. He also covers Metaculus' 'fortified essays' concept, which combines expert analysis with crowd forecasts, and shares recent predictions on topics like COVID-19 hospitalizations and SAT requirements in college admissions. Shorter summary
Nov 15, 2021
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Mantic Monday 11/15

22 min • 2,944 words • 217 comments • 35 likes • podcast (28 min)
Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in forecasting and prediction markets. He covers a new paper on reciprocal scoring for long-term and counterfactual predictions, the performance of prediction markets vs. traditional media in calling election results, a proposal for iterated prediction markets to handle long-term forecasts, and updates on current prediction market probabilities for various events. He also notes the accuracy of past Metaculus predictions about Starlink availability and shares some short items on futurism and expert forecasting. Shorter summary
Nov 01, 2021
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Mantic Monday 11/1/21

25 min • 3,387 words • 335 comments • 40 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander explores various applications and recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, covering topics from election betting to teacher evaluation and social media moderation. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. He starts with the concept of a Keynesian beauty contest applied to long-term forecasting, then analyzes recent developments in PredictIt markets, particularly the Virginia gubernatorial election. He explores the idea of using prediction markets to evaluate teacher performance, and examines some recent Metaculus predictions on SpaceX valuation, college enrollment, and AI code assistance adoption. The post also covers Vitalik Buterin's proposal for using prediction markets in social media moderation, and concludes with various links to prediction market-related news and articles. Shorter summary
Jul 27, 2021
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Mantic Monday 7/26

16 min • 2,136 words • 128 comments • 45 likes • podcast (21 min)
Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative. Longer summary
This post covers recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. It reviews recent markets on PredictIt, Polymarket, and Metaculus, focusing on COVID-19 predictions, the launch of Kalshi (a new regulated prediction market), and Metaculus' hiring of 'Analytical Storytellers'. The author discusses the potential of prediction markets in providing clearer information about current events and future possibilities, and suggests some additional markets that could be helpful. The post also touches on demographic predictions about dependency ratios in various countries. Shorter summary
Jun 22, 2021
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Mantic Monday 6/21/21

11 min • 1,431 words • 164 comments • 51 likes • podcast (15 min)
Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts. Longer summary
This post covers various prediction markets and forecasting topics. It starts with Metaculus predictions on Puerto Rico statehood, Jeff Bezos' potential investment in anti-aging, crypto site defaults, and the population of Prospera. The author then discusses Polymarket, comparing its liquidity to PredictIt for the NYC mayoral race. The post also analyzes a study on forecasting accuracy from PredictionBook, showing that more experienced predictors perform better and that longer-term predictions are often more accurate. Finally, the author addresses the current debate on inflation predictions, calling for more precise and accountable forecasts from economists and pundits. Shorter summary