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Dec 20, 2022
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Prediction Market FAQ

93 min • 12,960 words • 327 comments • 150 likes • podcast (77 min)
Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society. Longer summary
This post is a comprehensive FAQ about prediction markets, explaining what they are, why they are believed to be accurate and canonical, addressing common objections, and describing clever uses for them. Scott Alexander presents prediction markets as a potential solution to the 'crisis of trust' in modern society, arguing that they can provide unbiased, accurate predictions on a wide range of issues. The post also covers the current status of prediction markets and suggests ways people can help promote them. Shorter summary
Nov 21, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition

33 min • 4,501 words • 253 comments • 68 likes • podcast (29 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary
May 10, 2022
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Mantic Monday 5/9/22

22 min • 3,057 words • 248 comments • 67 likes • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews recent changes in prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, the Supreme Court leak on Roe v. Wade, and other topics. He discusses the usefulness of prediction markets, arguing that their main advantage is not accuracy but trust, aggregation, and clarity. He also describes an experiment in market manipulation on Manifold Markets and its implications. The post concludes with a look at some interesting recent predictions on topics like dog cloning, anti-aging, and Chinese politics. Shorter summary