Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his post about semaglutide, covering corrections, additional information, and user experiences with the weight loss drug. Longer summary

Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his previous post about semaglutide, a weight loss drug. The highlights include corrections to his original analysis, additional information on obtaining semaglutide cheaply, discussion of other weight loss drugs and treatments, challenges to Scott's predictions, debate over whether weight loss is maintained after stopping the drug, personal anecdotes from users, and mentions of some tangential debates in the comments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2016 predictions, finding good overall calibration with slight underconfidence at 70% probability, consistent with previous years. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2016, comparing them to actual outcomes. He lists predictions for world events and personal/community matters, marking false predictions with strikethrough and true ones intact. He then calculates his accuracy for different confidence levels, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident at 70% probability. He compares this year's results to previous years, noting a similar pattern of underconfidence in medium probabilities. Overall, he considers his 2016 predictions successful and promises predictions for 2017 soon. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concepts of 'pulling goals' (driven by specific desires) and 'pushing goals' (driven by existing structures), expressing his preference for the former and strategies to deal with the latter. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the distinction between 'pulling goals' and 'pushing goals'. Pulling goals are when you want to achieve something specific and create a plan, while pushing goals are when you have a structure but are trying to figure out what to do with it. He gives examples of both, such as studying to cure cancer (pulling) versus doing a research project just to graduate (pushing). Scott expresses his dislike for pushing goals, finding them potentially dishonest and often a sign that something has gone wrong. He argues that pushing goals can lead to confusion about one's true motivations and often result in inferior outcomes. The post concludes with Scott's personal strategy of keeping lists of things he wants to pull, to use when faced with pushing situations. Shorter summary

Two individuals share childhood misconceptions: Davis thought secrets weren't real, and Julia believed stars were just a poetic metaphor. Longer summary

This post presents two brief anecdotes about misconceptions. Davis shares his belief that secrets were not real, comparing them to evil twins, until a friend in college challenged this notion. Julia recounts her childhood misconception that stars were merely a poetic metaphor, only realizing they were real and visible to everyone when she got glasses in second grade. Shorter summary