Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent prediction markets on Manifold and other platforms, focusing on topics like Twitter's future under Elon Musk, the FTX scandal and its impact on effective altruism, and the 2022 US midterm elections. He analyzes the accuracy of different prediction markets and polling aggregators, and explores the potential benefits and risks of 'scandal markets' for public figures. The post also touches on regulatory challenges for prediction markets and some interesting market observations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and explains his votes on California's 2022 ballot propositions and candidates, providing analysis and commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his California ballot for 2022, discussing state propositions and candidates for various offices. He explains his voting philosophy, analyzes each proposition and candidate, and provides his reasoning for his votes. The post covers topics like abortion rights, gambling legalization, school funding, tobacco regulation, and various political races, offering a mix of analysis, humor, and personal opinions on California politics and governance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary