How to explore Scott Alexander's work and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

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4 posts found
Oct 18, 2022
acx
28 min 3,822 words 133 comments 59 likes podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary
This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary
Apr 18, 2022
acx
16 min 2,226 words 463 comments 45 likes podcast (21 min)
Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events. Longer summary
This post covers several prediction markets and forecasts related to current events. It discusses changes in Ukraine war predictions, nuclear risk estimates, AI development timelines, and other topics like Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition and the French presidential election. Scott analyzes discrepancies between different forecasts and markets, and explores potential reasons for changes in predictions. Shorter summary
Mar 14, 2022
acx
18 min 2,440 words 203 comments 54 likes podcast (23 min)
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms. Longer summary
This post discusses recent changes in Ukraine-related prediction markets, analyzes the seemingly monotonic decrease in probabilities of Russian success, explores nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares the performance of forecasters vs. domain experts. Scott also covers various short updates on prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Shorter summary
Mar 08, 2022
acx
33 min 4,594 words 1,036 comments 68 likes podcast (34 min)
Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources. Longer summary
Scott Alexander shares his thoughts on the Ukraine conflict, covering topics such as the state of 'Pax Americana', the importance of international norms, the risks of escalation, and the West's response. He emphasizes the dangers of a no-fly zone, discusses the unexpected resilience of Ukraine and Western unity, and acknowledges criticisms of Western actions. The post ends with various links related to the conflict, including resources for helping Ukrainians and interesting cultural tidbits. Shorter summary