Scott Alexander explores new data on birth order effects among his blog readers, finding social factors likely explain firstborns' overrepresentation. Longer summary

Scott Alexander revisits the birth order effect he discovered in his blog readership in 2018, presenting new data from a 2020 survey. He confirms the original findings that firstborns are overrepresented among his readers, especially when age gaps between siblings are small. The post explores potential explanations, concluding that social factors, particularly parental attention, likely play a larger role than biological factors. This challenges some established views on the impact of early childhood experiences on adult outcomes. Scott acknowledges limitations in his analysis and calls for further research to better understand these effects. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book applying evolutionary psychology to psychiatry, finding the approach intriguing but hard to verify and potentially open to misuse. Longer summary

Scott reviews 'Evolutionary Psychopathology: A Unified Approach' by Marco del Giudice. The book applies evolutionary psychology to psychiatry, using life history theory to explain mental disorders. It proposes that humans adopt different life strategies (fast vs. slow) based on their environment and genetics, which influence personality traits and potentially psychiatric conditions. Scott finds the theory intriguing but notes it requires subdividing existing psychiatric categories in ways that make it hard to verify. He discusses potential social and political implications of the theory, including how it might explain effects of early childhood interventions and romantic success patterns. While seeing promise in the approach, Scott cautions that the theory could be used to justify problematic social views. Shorter summary

This Adversarial Collaboration Contest entry examines the evidence and debates surrounding transgender children transitioning, covering desistence rates, social transitioning, puberty blockers, and mental health outcomes. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest, examining the complex issue of whether transgender children should transition. It covers topics such as gender dysphoria, desistence rates, social transitioning, puberty blockers, and mental health outcomes. The authors present evidence from various studies and narratives, discussing the potential benefits and risks of different approaches to supporting gender dysphoric youth. They conclude by summarizing the current state of knowledge on desistence, social transitioning, and puberty blockers, highlighting areas where more research is needed. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a study showing positive effects of early intervention on at-risk children, but questions its policy implications due to high costs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a study on early intervention programs for at-risk children, which showed positive effects on various outcomes at age 25. The study, a randomized controlled trial, found that intensive interventions costing $60,000 per child reduced the odds of developing psychiatric disorders, substance abuse problems, and engaging in criminal behavior. While the results are scientifically interesting, Scott points out some limitations and questions the cost-effectiveness from a policy perspective. He notes that the intervention didn't affect all outcomes equally and that the high cost might not justify the benefits when compared to existing educational spending. Shorter summary

Scott criticizes a study linking childhood bullying to negative adult outcomes, arguing that its method of controlling for confounders is inadequate and proposing alternative explanations for the correlation. Longer summary

Scott criticizes a study claiming that childhood bullying victimization leads to negative adult outcomes. He argues that the study's attempt to control for confounding factors is inadequate, as bullies are likely better at identifying vulnerable children than the researchers' measures. Scott suggests that unmeasured factors like height could explain the correlation, and that the study's method of adjusting for confounders is unreliable. He proposes that a proper study would involve an anti-bullying intervention with control schools. The post also mentions a contrasting study that found no association after adjusting for confounders, and questions the reliability of parent reports on bullying used in the original study. Shorter summary