Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent changes in prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, the Supreme Court leak on Roe v. Wade, and other topics. He discusses the usefulness of prediction markets, arguing that their main advantage is not accuracy but trust, aggregation, and clarity. He also describes an experiment in market manipulation on Manifold Markets and its implications. The post concludes with a look at some interesting recent predictions on topics like dog cloning, anti-aging, and Chinese politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander compiles and summarizes reader comments on his article about Xi Jinping, covering various aspects of Xi's rule and Chinese politics. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on Scott Alexander's article about Xi Jinping, covering topics such as Xi's rise to power, censorship in China, anti-corruption efforts, and centralization of power. Commenters discuss the ideological nature of Communist leadership selection, the complexities of censorship in the internet age, and the effects of Xi's anti-corruption campaign. The post also includes miscellaneous observations on historical parallels, psychological analysis of Xi, and cultural differences in rule-following. Shorter summary

Scott explores cultural translation by reimagining Xi Jinping's life as that of a fictional American president, Jason Shea, and reflects on the challenges of this creative exercise. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a creative writing exercise where he attempts to 'translate' the biography of Chinese leader Xi Jinping into an American context, creating the fictional character of Jason Shea as the 44th US President. He explores the challenges of cultural translation, drawing parallels between Chinese and American political systems and historical events. The post is divided into two parts: the fictional biography and a reflection on the writing process and its limitations. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a book on Xi Jinping's rule, exploring China's government structure and Xi's rise to power, concluding that China's system failed to prevent authoritarianism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Elizabeth Economy's book 'The Third Revolution' about Xi Jinping's rule in China, but finds it doesn't answer his key questions about how Xi came to power. He explores China's government structure, the pre-Xi era, Xi's rise to power, and his actions as leader. Scott concludes that China's oligarchic system failed to prevent authoritarianism, increasing his confidence in democracy, though he's uncertain about attributing China's economic success solely to its government. Shorter summary