Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events.
Longer summary
This post covers several prediction markets and forecasts related to current events. It discusses changes in Ukraine war predictions, nuclear risk estimates, AI development timelines, and other topics like Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition and the French presidential election. Scott analyzes discrepancies between different forecasts and markets, and explores potential reasons for changes in predictions.
Shorter summary