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3 posts found
Apr 01, 2022
acx

The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions

14 min • 1,857 words • 254 comments • 101 likes • podcast (16 min)
Scott proposes a 'low-hanging fruit' model to explain trends in scientific discovery, using a foraging analogy to illustrate why early scientists make more discoveries and at a younger age. Longer summary
Scott Alexander proposes a model to explain several trends in scientific discovery over time, using an analogy of foragers in a camp. The model suggests that early scientists make more discoveries than later ones, amateurs are more likely to contribute early on, and the age of discovery increases over time. These trends are less pronounced for brilliant scientists and don't apply to new fields. The model provides a mechanical explanation for trends often attributed to political factors, though Scott estimates it accounts for about 75% of the effect. Shorter summary
Aug 06, 2021
acx

Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story

26 min • 3,615 words • 284 comments • 129 likes • podcast (25 min)
Scott Alexander corrects and expands on the story of Omegaven, a life-saving infant nutritional fluid, using it to illustrate systemic issues with medical regulation and drug approval. Longer summary
Scott Alexander revisits a story about Omegaven, a fish-oil-based nutritional fluid for infants, correcting some details from his previous post. He explains how the fluid was discovered to prevent liver disease in infants requiring IV nutrition, and the challenges faced in getting it approved by the FDA. While the FDA comes off relatively well in the story, Scott argues that the real problem is the systemic hurdle of drug approval that makes everything in medicine illegal by default. He discusses how this hurdle makes scientific discoveries harder and potentially costs lives, even when many individuals involved are trying their best. Shorter summary
Aug 05, 2014
ssc

Negative Creativity

7 min • 931 words • 71 comments
Scott Alexander suggests humans have 'negative creativity' due to cognitive 'ruts', and explores ways to escape these ruts, arguing that AI might have an advantage in creative thinking. Longer summary
Scott Alexander explores the concept of creativity, suggesting that humans have 'negative creativity' due to their brains being designed to stay in cognitive 'ruts'. He proposes that dreams, drugs, mishearing others, and metaphors are ways to escape these ruts and generate novel ideas. The post discusses examples of scientific discoveries made through dreams or drug use, and explains how adding 'noise' to thought processes might inspire creativity. Scott argues that AI might actually have an advantage in creativity, as they wouldn't have the built-in limitations humans do, and might be able to generate truly random ideas more easily. Shorter summary