How to explore Scott Alexander's work and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Minutes:
Blog:
Year:
4622 tags
Show all filters
2 posts found
Mar 21, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday 3/21/22

17 min • 2,344 words • 103 comments • 29 likes • podcast (22 min)
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions. Shorter summary
Feb 08, 2022
acx

Two Small Corrections And Updates

2 min • 231 words • 12 comments • 15 likes • podcast (3 min)
Scott offers corrections about Polymarket's status and updates on the 2022 prediction contest, including calls for collaboration and ideas. Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides two corrections and updates to previous posts. First, he clarifies that Polymarket is still operational, offering real-money markets outside the US and working on a US-compliant product. Second, he reminds readers about the 2022 prediction contest entry deadline and shares a message from the contest organizers about potential collaborations with prediction markets and ideas for using the contest data. Shorter summary