Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander provides an update on prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, discusses the situation with Insight Prediction (a prediction market platform), shares data from the ACX 2022 Prediction Contest, and gives brief updates on various prediction-related topics. The post covers changes in probabilities for key Ukraine war outcomes, the challenges faced by Insight Prediction due to the war, analysis of the ACX prediction contest data, and mentions of new prediction market platforms and AI-related predictions.
Shorter summary