Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique.
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Scott Alexander reviews Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines for Open Philanthropy, which uses biological anchors to estimate when transformative AI might arrive, and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique of this methodology. The post explains Cotra's approach, Yudkowsky's objections, and various responses, ultimately concluding that while the report may not significantly change existing beliefs, the debate highlights important considerations in AI forecasting.
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