How to avoid getting lost reading Scott Alexander and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

See also Top Posts and All Tags.

Minutes:
Blog:
Year:
4542 tags
Show all filters
2 posts found
Feb 14, 2022
acx

Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold

17 min • 2,133 words • 219 comments • 40 likes • podcast
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary
Dec 27, 2021
acx

Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats

20 min • 2,567 words • 98 comments • 41 likes • podcast
Scott discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including new platforms, features, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary
This Mantic Monday post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets. Scott reviews a YouTube explainer on prediction markets, introduces a new market called Futuur, discusses the innovative approach of Mantic Markets, highlights Metaculus' Public Figure Predictions feature, and provides updates on current market predictions for various events. He also shares some short notes on foot voting coordination efforts, a suggestion for using prediction markets in college debates, and Google's new prediction market team. Shorter summary