Scott Alexander uses thought experiments to explore how people form coalitions and support networks, relating these to real-world social and political dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores social dynamics through thought experiments involving castaways on a lifeboat and various 'backscratchers clubs'. He discusses how people form coalitions, make decisions in extreme situations, and how ideologies and social movements can serve as covers for mutual support networks. The post examines the formation of in-groups, the role of Schelling points in decision-making, and how these dynamics might relate to real-world phenomena like racism, nationalism, and establishment power structures. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a biography of John von Neumann, exploring the mathematician's life, genius, and views on existential risk from technology. Longer summary

This post reviews 'The Man From The Future', a biography of John von Neumann by Ananyo Bhattacharya. It covers von Neumann's early life and education in Hungary, his extraordinary intellectual abilities, his work on various scientific fields, and his views on existential risks from technology. The review explores theories about why so many geniuses emerged from Hungary in the early 20th century, details von Neumann's personality and social skills, and discusses his controversial views on nuclear war. It ends with von Neumann's thoughts on how humanity might survive the dangers of rapid technological progress. Shorter summary

The review analyzes Robert Ellickson's 'Order Without Law', which argues that close-knit communities often develop welfare-maximizing social norms that supersede formal laws. Longer summary

This book review examines 'Order Without Law: How Neighbors Settle Disputes' by Robert Ellickson, which explores how social norms often supersede formal laws in close-knit communities. The review provides a detailed analysis of Ellickson's main hypothesis: that members of close-knit groups develop norms that maximize aggregate welfare in their everyday interactions. It discusses various case studies, including cattle ranchers in Shasta County and whalers, and critically examines the strengths and limitations of Ellickson's arguments. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, including links to data, privacy measures, and future analysis plans. Longer summary

This post announces the results of the 2020 Slate Star Codex survey, which received 8,043 responses. Scott Alexander provides links to the survey questions and aggregated results, addresses privacy concerns by removing long-answer questions from public view, and offers downloadable datasets for those interested in analyzing the data themselves. He mentions plans for publishing more complex analyses over the coming year. The post also includes the results of a game from the survey, 'Prisoner's Dilemma Against Your Clone', and instructions for the winner to claim their prize. Shorter summary

In a fictional story, five islanders confront their society's religious taboos after a shipwrecked sailor points out their blue eyes, leading them to question and ultimately reject their beliefs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander presents a fictional story about five islanders who discover a flaw in their society's religious taboos after a shipwrecked sailor points out their blue eyes. The story explores themes of knowledge, belief, and social pressure as the characters grapple with the implications of their newfound awareness and ultimately reject their society's beliefs. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the right to waive one's rights can be beneficial, using examples from psychiatry and game theory to illustrate his point. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the tension between protecting individuals from exploitative contracts and maintaining the freedom to enter into voluntary agreements. He argues that restrictions on contracts, while sometimes necessary, can have unintended negative consequences. Using his experience as a psychiatrist, he illustrates how the inability to waive certain rights can lead to worse outcomes for patients. He suggests that the ability to waive rights can actually be a form of empowerment, allowing individuals to make decisions that best suit their unique circumstances. The post concludes by drawing parallels to game theory, suggesting that the ability to limit one's options can sometimes be strategically advantageous. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how perfect predictions of war outcomes, through oracles or prediction markets, could potentially prevent wars, and extends this concept to conflicts between superintelligent AIs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of using oracles or prediction markets to prevent wars. He begins with a hypothetical scenario where accurate predictions of war outcomes are available, discussing how this might affect decisions to go to war. He then considers the Mexican-American War as an example, proposing a thought experiment where both sides could avoid the war by negotiating based on the predicted outcome. The post then shifts to discussing the potential of prediction markets as a more realistic alternative to oracles, referencing Robin Hanson's concept of futarchy. Finally, Scott speculates on how superintelligent AIs might resolve conflicts, drawing parallels to the idea of using perfect predictions to avoid destructive wars. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Singer's book on Marx, finding Marx's ideas deeply flawed, particularly his refusal to plan for communist governance and his belief in infinitely malleable human nature. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Peter Singer's 'Marx: A Very Short Introduction', finding Marx's ideas even more problematic than he initially thought. He criticizes Marx's refusal to plan for communist governance, his belief in the non-existence of human nature, and his naive assumptions about coordination. Scott does acknowledge one insightful aspect of Marx's thought related to collective irrationality, but notes this wasn't original to Marx. The review ends with Scott suggesting that the real challenge for Marxist intellectuals should be developing systems that solve coordination problems better than capitalism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines contractualism and its limitations using a thought experiment of 100 men with varying strengths, exploring how power dynamics affect moral agreements. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of contractualism in morality, using a thought experiment involving a society of 100 men with varying strengths. He examines how different agreements against oppression might be formed based on utility ratios and power differentials. The post then discusses why this model doesn't work due to game theory considerations, drawing parallels with the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Scott concludes by proposing some variations of the problem that might yield more interesting results, including random elements in interactions, meta-agreements, and coalitions. Shorter summary

Scott explores the concept of an 'Economists' Paradise' to derive a form of contractualism as a basis for morality, potentially grounding utilitarianism and resolving some of its paradoxes. Longer summary

Scott explores the concept of an 'Economists' Paradise' where all game-theoretic problems are solved and all transactions are voluntary and honest. He uses this to derive a form of contractualism as a basis for morality, suggesting it might ground utilitarianism and help resolve some of its paradoxes. The post discusses how this ideal state might solve issues like bullying and world hunger, and how it relates to concepts like Rawls' Veil of Ignorance. Scott concludes by proposing the metaphor of an 'Invisible Nation' to represent this ideal moral framework. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Moloch as a metaphor for destructive societal coordination problems, using various examples to show how competing incentives can lead to negative outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of Moloch as a metaphor for destructive coordination problems in society, drawing on Allen Ginsberg's poem and various examples to illustrate how competing incentives can lead to negative outcomes for all. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously explores the World Cup's complex rules, game theory in soccer, and unusual incentive structures in international tournaments. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously discusses the World Cup, focusing on its complex advancement rules and the strategic implications for teams. He explores the idea of the tournament as a primitive neural net, and ponders whether a large enough soccer tournament could achieve sentience. The post then delves into game theory, discussing the potential for teams to cooperate for mutual benefit in certain scenarios. It concludes with an anecdote about a 1994 Caribbean Cup game that had an extremely unusual incentive structure due to a peculiar rule. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against using dishonest and harmful tactics in pursuit of social or political goals, defending the power of truthfulness, kindness, and liberalism. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the idea that using lies, insults, and harassment is justified in pursuing social or political goals. He contends that civilization and progress are built on agreements to be truthful and kind, even to opponents. The post explores how beneficial equilibria can arise without central enforcement, through reciprocal communitarianism and 'divine grace'. Scott defends his focus on criticizing those who claim to be rational but use dishonest tactics, seeing them as a threat to the 'walled garden' of rational discourse. He argues that liberalism and non-violence have been historically successful strategies, contrary to the view that they are weak. The post ends by comparing liberalism to a powerful 'Elder God' that should not be underestimated. Shorter summary