Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal prediction market Gleangen, challenges in long-term predictions, conditional markets for policy decisions, and new weight loss drugs. He also covers Metaculus' 'fortified essays' concept, which combines expert analysis with crowd forecasts, and shares recent predictions on topics like COVID-19 hospitalizations and SAT requirements in college admissions.
Shorter summary