Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses predictions about the Omicron variant of COVID-19 using data from prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He examines forecasts on the variant's transmissibility (R0), lethality compared to Delta, and its expected prevalence in the US. The post highlights that Metaculus predicts Omicron to be more transmissible than Delta, with a 34% chance of being deadlier, and likely to become the dominant US variant by mid-March. Scott concludes with a humorous tweet about the rapid emergence of new variants.
Shorter summary