Scott investigates the claim that cold-related deaths account for 10% of global mortality, exploring various factors and potential impacts of global warming on death rates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the surprising claim that cold-related deaths account for nearly 10% of all deaths globally. He investigates various studies and data sources to understand this phenomenon, discussing the differences between cold-related and winter-related deaths, regional variations in mortality rates, and potential mechanisms behind these deaths. The post delves into the complexities of adapting to different climates, the role of influenza in winter mortality, and cardiovascular effects of cold weather. Finally, Scott examines the potential impact of global warming on mortality rates, finding that most scientific analyses predict a net increase in deaths despite the reduction in cold-related mortality. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that concerns about climate change should not deter people from having children, presenting counterarguments to common climate-related reasons for avoiding parenthood. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the idea that people should avoid having children due to climate change concerns. He presents three main counterarguments: 1) While climate change will be bad, it's unlikely to be catastrophic for most people in developed countries. 2) Choosing not to have children might actually harm climate action by reducing the number of future climate-conscious voters. 3) The carbon footprint of having a child is often overstated, and can potentially be offset through donations or other means. He concludes that climate concerns shouldn't prevent people who want children from having them. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', a book about existential risks to humanity, noting Ord's careful analysis and surprisingly low risk estimates while emphasizing the importance of addressing these risks. Longer summary

This book review discusses Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', which examines existential risks to humanity. The review outlines Ord's arguments for taking these risks seriously, his analysis of specific risks like nuclear war and AI, and his recommendations for addressing them. The reviewer notes Ord's careful statistical reasoning and surprisingly low risk estimates for many scenarios, while still emphasizing the overall importance of mitigating existential risks. The review concludes by reflecting on Ord's perspective and the appropriate response to even seemingly small risks of human extinction. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander endorses voting for Hillary Clinton in swing states, and Clinton, Johnson, or Stein in safe states. He argues against Donald Trump, not primarily on policy grounds, but because of Trump's unpredictability, potential for high-variance outcomes, and the damage he could do to conservatism and the fight against social justice extremism. Alexander expresses concerns about Trump's lack of concrete plans, his potential to radicalize the next generation towards the far left, and his movement's epistemic vices. He also touches on issues like global warming and immigration, urging readers to consider the long-term consequences of their vote. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander humorously criticizes ten irritating internet trends he hopes will end in 2014, ranging from overused words to memes and logical fallacies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously criticizes ten internet trends he wants to stop seeing in 2014. These include overused words like 'fanboy' and 'butthurt', inconsistent arguments about global warming, the doge meme, meta-humor, socioeconomic insults, misuse of 'dude' and 'bro', generational arguments, criticism of girls with male friends, and doge memes referencing the Doge of Venice. He satirically dissects each trend, pointing out their logical flaws or overuse, and occasionally proposes solutions or compromises. The post is written in a sarcastic and exasperated tone, reflecting Scott's frustration with these internet phenomena. Shorter summary