Scott Alexander shares and comments on highlights from Philip Tetlock's 'Superforecasting', discussing forecasting, cognitive biases, and organizational effectiveness.
Longer summary
This post is a collection of highlights and commentary on Philip Tetlock's book 'Superforecasting'. Scott Alexander shares quotes from the book and provides his own analysis on topics such as evidence-based medicine, cognitive biases in forecasting, the importance of probabilistic thinking, and organizational effectiveness. He also reflects on the implications of these ideas for fields like intelligence analysis, politics, and rationality.
Shorter summary