Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative.
Longer summary
This post covers recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. It reviews recent markets on PredictIt, Polymarket, and Metaculus, focusing on COVID-19 predictions, the launch of Kalshi (a new regulated prediction market), and Metaculus' hiring of 'Analytical Storytellers'. The author discusses the potential of prediction markets in providing clearer information about current events and future possibilities, and suggests some additional markets that could be helpful. The post also touches on demographic predictions about dependency ratios in various countries.
Shorter summary