How to explore Scott Alexander's work and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

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5 posts found
Jul 07, 2021
acx

Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

80 min • 11,106 words • 504 comments • 104 likes • podcast (87 min)
Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective. Longer summary
Scott analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdowns, examining data from Sweden, US states, and Europe. He finds that lockdowns likely reduced transmission rates, with targeted measures like school closures being more effective than stay-at-home orders. The analysis suggests lockdowns saved lives but at significant economic and emotional costs, with the cost-effectiveness varying between countries and time periods. Scott concludes that fast, well-targeted lockdowns may have been optimal, but emphasizes the high uncertainty in these estimates. Shorter summary
Apr 14, 2020
ssc

A Failure, But Not Of Prediction

31 min • 4,215 words • 863 comments • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Longer summary
This post discusses the media's failure in covering the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the issue was not primarily one of prediction but of probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty. Scott Alexander argues that while predicting the exact course of the pandemic was difficult, the media and experts failed to properly convey and act on the potential risks even when the probability seemed low. He contrasts this with examples of good reasoning from individuals who took the threat seriously early on, not because they were certain it would be catastrophic, but because they understood the importance of preparing for low-probability, high-impact events. Shorter summary
Apr 10, 2020
ssc

Coronalinks 4/10: Second Derivative

28 min • 3,781 words • 829 comments • podcast (23 min)
Scott Alexander provides updates on coronavirus trends, discusses various pandemic-related topics, and analyzes different countries' responses and policy proposals. Longer summary
This blog post provides updates on various aspects of the coronavirus pandemic. It discusses the slowing growth rate of cases in many countries, the challenges of mail-in voting in the US, charity efforts, how different countries are responding to the crisis, economic analyses of lockdowns, some positive developments in the US response, and various other coronavirus-related topics. The post maintains a speculative and analytical tone, examining different perspectives on issues like immunity certificates, expert predictions, and controversies around ventilator donations. Shorter summary
Mar 27, 2020
ssc

Coronalinks 3/27/20: We’re Number One

47 min • 6,534 words • 950 comments • podcast (37 min)
Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts. Longer summary
This blog post discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the 'hammer and dance' strategy, smoking cessation, mysteries surrounding Japan's low case numbers, takeout food safety, ventilator numbers, the UK's policy reversal, density and infection rates, hydroxychloroquine controversy, concerns about developing countries, donation opportunities, cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, US stimulus bill negotiations, and media coverage of the pandemic across the political spectrum. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and developments. Shorter summary
Mar 19, 2020
ssc

Coronalinks 3/19/20

27 min • 3,668 words • 705 comments • podcast (25 min)
Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses. Longer summary
This blog post provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers topics such as estimating the true number of cases, the lack of a clear endgame strategy, the effectiveness of 'flattening the curve', differentiating COVID-19 from flu symptoms, the use of anti-inflammatory drugs, ventilator shortages, disease seasonality, the need for better data, and the Bay Area's response to the crisis. The post also includes short links to other coronavirus-related news and observations. Shorter summary