Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply on medical effectiveness, clarifying interpretations and reiterating arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical care. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to Robin Hanson's reply to his original post on medical effectiveness. Scott clarifies his interpretation of Hanson's views, discusses potential misunderstandings, and reiterates his arguments about the limitations of insurance experiments in evaluating medical effectiveness. He also addresses specific points Hanson made about cancer treatment, health insurance studies, and p-hacking in medical research. Scott concludes by restating his position that while some medicine is ineffective, it's crucial to distinguish between effective and ineffective treatments rather than dismissing medicine broadly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses simulations to explain why seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia are misleading. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia and explains why they're not as compelling as they might appear. He uses a simplified simulation to demonstrate how a highly heritable disorder can have low twin concordance rates and why eliminating affected individuals doesn't significantly reduce prevalence in the next generation. The post aims to clarify common misunderstandings about polygenic disorders and their inheritance patterns. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques studies suggesting that describable preferences are useless in dating, arguing that common sense and empirical evidence show otherwise. He points out flaws in these studies, such as pre-sorted populations and brief evaluation periods, and suggests that while initial attraction might be random, similar interests and personalities likely lead to lasting relationships. Scott also discusses the value of dating profiles and 'dating docs' in conveying subjective preferences that can't be easily quantified in psychological exams. He concludes that for people who believe they can use describable preferences effectively, these tools remain valuable despite average trends in the general population. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that intelligence is a useful, non-Platonic concept, and that this understanding supports the coherence of AI risk concerns. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against the claim that AI doomers are 'Platonists' who believe in an objective concept of intelligence. He explains that intelligence, like other concepts, is a bundle of useful correlations that exist in a normal, fuzzy way. Scott demonstrates how intelligence is a useful concept by showing correlations between different cognitive abilities in humans and animals. He then argues that thinking about AI in terms of intelligence has been fruitful, citing the success of approaches that focus on increasing compute and training data. Finally, he explains how this understanding of intelligence is sufficient for the concept of an 'intelligence explosion' to be coherent. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that selection bias, while a concern, is not a valid reason to automatically reject amateur online surveys, as professional studies also face similar limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the issue of selection bias in amateur online surveys, arguing that it's not a valid reason to dismiss their results outright. He points out that professional scientific studies also suffer from selection bias, often using unrepresentative samples like psychology students. The post explains that while selection bias is problematic for polls or census-like studies aiming to determine population-wide statistics, it's less of an issue for correlation studies. Scott argues that the key is to consider the mechanism being studied and how it might generalize, rather than dismissing studies based solely on their sample selection method. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an in-depth analysis of ivermectin studies for COVID-19 treatment, examining methodological issues, potential fraud, and confounding factors. He concludes that ivermectin likely doesn't significantly reduce COVID mortality except potentially in areas with high parasitic worm infections. The post explores broader issues around scientific credibility, fraud detection, and public trust in science. Shorter summary

A review of Frans de Waal's book on animal cognition, discussing its insights into animal intelligence, scientific methodology, and the evolutionary basis of cognition. Longer summary

This review of 'Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?' by Frans de Waal explores the field of animal cognition and its broader implications. The book discusses the history of ethology, challenges in studying animal intelligence, and the evolutionary continuity of cognition across species. The reviewer highlights key takeaways about scientific methodology, interdisciplinary communication, and the joy of learning about animal intelligence. The review also compares the book to other works on related topics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses three fictional stories to illustrate principles of non-empirical scientific reasoning, ultimately applying them to support the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics. Longer summary

This post presents three fictional stories to illustrate important points about non-empirical arguments in science. The first story shows that even when two theories make identical predictions, it's important to choose the simpler one. The second story demonstrates that determining which theory is simpler isn't always straightforward and requires philosophical understanding. The third story ties these concepts to quantum mechanics, arguing that the many-worlds interpretation is preferable to single-world interpretations based on these principles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a misreported study on trigger warnings, highlighting its flaws and limited relevance to the broader debate on their use in colleges. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a study on trigger warnings that has been misreported in media. He points out several flaws in the study, including weak statistical significance, inappropriate sample demographics, and questionable measurement of harm. Scott emphasizes that the study doesn't actually measure long-term effects or real-world impacts of trigger warnings on college students. He argues that the study's findings are being overinterpreted and misused in public discourse. The post ends with Scott reiterating his own proposal for implementing trigger warnings in a low-key, matter-of-fact manner. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a paper that claims to solve the Fermi Paradox by using probability distributions instead of point estimates in Drake Equation calculations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a paper by Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord that claims to dissolve the Fermi Paradox. The authors argue that the traditional Drake Equation approach, which multiplies point estimates of various factors, is flawed. Instead, they propose using a distribution of probabilities for each factor. Using this method, they calculate a much higher probability (about 1 in 3) of Earth being alone in the galaxy, compared to the vanishingly small probability from the traditional approach. Scott expresses surprise that this approach wasn't widely used before, given its apparent simplicity and effectiveness. He also highlights an interesting section from the paper's supplement discussing potential barriers to complex life arising from alternative genetic systems. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines why compelling but unlikely stories on large internet platforms are probably lies, despite our reluctance to believe so. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the prevalence of seemingly incredible stories on large internet platforms like Reddit. He proposes that, given the massive user base, even a small percentage of trolls or liars can produce numerous convincing but false stories. This principle extends to viral news stories, blog posts, and even scientific research, where the most interesting or surprising results are disproportionately likely to be false. Despite understanding this logically, Scott notes that it's psychologically difficult to dismiss these stories as lies, and he explores possible reasons for this cognitive dissonance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a pseudoscientific claim about the Great Pyramid of Giza to illustrate how coincidences can appear more significant than they are, relating this to challenges in evaluating scientific studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a pseudoscientific claim that the Great Pyramid of Giza's location encodes the speed of light to seven decimal places. He breaks down the coincidence, explaining how it's less impressive than it initially appears due to various degrees of freedom in the calculation. He then uses this as a jumping-off point to discuss how similar issues can arise in legitimate scientific studies, referencing Andrew Gelman's 'garden of forking paths' concept. The post concludes by emphasizing the difficulty of fully dissecting such coincidences, even when actively looking for explanations, and how this applies to evaluating scientific studies. Shorter summary

The post deconstructs a growth mindset study, revealing that its positive claims in the abstract are not supported by the actual data, demonstrating the importance of critical analysis of scientific papers. Longer summary

The post critically analyzes a study on growth mindset interventions, revealing that the abstract's positive claims are not supported by the actual data. The author demonstrates how the study's results, when examined closely, show little to no effect of growth mindset interventions on students' academic performance. The post highlights the importance of reading beyond abstracts and titles, and critically examining scientific papers, especially in popular fields where publication bias may exist. The author uses this example to illustrate how careful analysis can reveal contradictions between a study's stated conclusions and its actual findings. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes two conflicting studies on gender bias in STEM hiring, exploring reasons for their contradictory results and the challenges in reaching a definitive conclusion. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two contradictory studies on gender bias in STEM hiring, one showing bias against women and another showing bias in favor of women. He explores possible reasons for the discrepancy, including differences in methodology and potential experimenter bias. The post highlights the difficulty in reaching a definitive conclusion on this issue despite its importance and the resources dedicated to studying it. Scott suggests that the conflicting results might be due to subtle experimenter effects and proposes a joint study by both teams as a potential solution. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander cautions against basing opinions on limited research, using examples from medicine and economics to show how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander warns against relying on a single study or a limited selection of studies to form opinions on complex issues. He illustrates this with examples from medical research and the minimum wage debate, showing how cherry-picking studies can lead to opposing conclusions. The post emphasizes the importance of considering the full body of evidence, including meta-analyses and expert opinions, while also being aware of potential biases in research and reporting. Scott concludes by advocating for skepticism and thorough investigation when evaluating claims backed by scientific studies. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander criticizes psychological studies that confuse short-term reactions with long-term effects, using examples from video game violence research, media stereotype studies, and parenting research. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques psychological studies that draw broad conclusions about long-term effects based on short-term reactions. He uses examples from video game violence research, studies on media stereotypes, and child-rearing practices to illustrate the 'streetlight effect' - where researchers focus on easily measurable short-term effects rather than more relevant long-term impacts. He argues that temporary changes in mood or behavior immediately after an intervention don't necessarily translate to lasting personality changes or real-world actions. The post calls for more skepticism in interpreting such studies and emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between immediate situational responses and genuine long-term effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from politics and economics to scientific studies, offering brief commentaries and critiques. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and brief commentaries on various topics. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of subjects including politics, science, social issues, and economics. He discusses studies on poverty traps, the relationship between poverty and crime, and the effects of marijuana legalization. The post also includes quirky facts, book reviews, and observations on cultural phenomena. Scott's tone is analytical and often skeptical, particularly when discussing scientific studies and their interpretations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander defends the validity of intelligence and IQ tests by comparing them to comas and the Glasgow Coma Scale in medicine. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that intelligence and IQ tests are valid concepts, analogous to comas and the Glasgow Coma Scale in medicine. He contends that whether there's a single general factor of intelligence is less important than the usefulness of IQ as a predictive measure. Scott draws parallels between how comas and intelligence are measured, showing that both involve multiple factors combined into a single scale used for predictions. He criticizes arguments against the existence of intelligence as often being a motte-and-bailey fallacy, where the easily defensible position (uncertainty about a single general factor) is used to imply that all claims about intelligence are meaningless. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'Eulering' and strategies for dealing with complex mathematical arguments in non-mathematical debates. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'Eulering,' where complex mathematical arguments are used to refute non-mathematical ideas, potentially leaving those less mathematically inclined unable to respond effectively. He uses the apocryphal story of Diderot and Euler to illustrate this concept. Scott explores the dilemma of whether to dismiss such arguments as sophistry or to accept them at face value, highlighting the trade-off between avoiding mathematical intimidation and maintaining intellectual rigor. He discusses his personal experiences with mathematical arguments in various fields, particularly focusing on statistics in scientific research. Scott proposes a strategy of 'routing around' complex mathematical objections by focusing on the underlying non-mathematical claims and evidence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critiques a meta-analysis supporting psychic phenomena to illustrate flaws in scientific methodology and meta-analysis. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a meta-analysis by Daryl Bem that claims to provide strong evidence for psychic phenomena (psi). While Bem's analysis follows many best practices for scientific rigor, Alexander argues it likely suffers from experimenter effects and other biases that can produce false positive results. He uses this to illustrate broader issues with the scientific method and meta-analysis, concluding that even seemingly rigorous studies and meta-analyses can produce incorrect conclusions. This challenges the idea that scientific consensus and meta-analysis are the highest forms of evidence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reflects on five years of Less Wrong, highlighting the community's intellectual progress in various areas of rationality and philosophy. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the fifth anniversary of Less Wrong, a rationalist community blog. He notes how many ideas that now seem obvious were once novel and exciting to the community. He covers several areas where Less Wrong has made progress, including understanding akrasia, decision theory, meta-contrarianism, trivial inconveniences, problems with scientific processes, effective altruism, and novel social norms. Scott concludes by expressing excitement about the intellectual progress the community has made, suggesting there's a path of development where insights that once seemed inscrutable become clear over time. Shorter summary