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Apr 29, 2020
ssc

Predictions For 2020

8 min • 1,086 words • 436 comments • podcast (11 min)
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual list of predictions for the upcoming year (2020). The post includes 100 predictions on various topics including coronavirus, politics, economics, technology, his blog Slate Star Codex, personal life, and professional life. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from global events to personal goals, with some entries redacted for privacy reasons. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary
Jan 25, 2019
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Predictions For 2019

9 min • 1,207 words • 97 comments • podcast (14 min)
Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for the upcoming year (2019). The post includes 118 predictions covering various topics such as US politics, economics, technology, world events, and personal matters. Each prediction is assigned a probability percentage. The predictions range from political outcomes (e.g., Trump's presidency, Democratic primaries) to economic indicators (e.g., Bitcoin prices, stock market performance) and personal goals. Many personal predictions are redacted to protect privacy. Scott explains the rules for these predictions and how they will be scored at the end of the year. Shorter summary
Feb 06, 2018
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Predictions For 2018

11 min • 1,435 words • 302 comments • podcast (13 min)
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each. Longer summary
Scott Alexander presents his annual predictions for 2018, covering various topics including US politics, economics, technology, culture wars, the rationalist community, and personal matters. He makes 100 predictions with assigned probabilities, ranging from political outcomes to personal goals. The post includes predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, cryptocurrency prices, SpaceX launches, and the growth of Scott's blog. He also mentions some secret predictions about friends' personal lives. Scott explains his methodology and notes some predictions he already believes may be miscalibrated. Shorter summary
Jun 13, 2015
ssc

(Late) Predictions for 2015

5 min • 615 words • 211 comments
Scott Alexander makes belated predictions for 2015, covering world events and personal life with varying confidence levels. Longer summary
Scott Alexander belatedly makes predictions for 2015, covering world events and personal life. He explains his delay and sets out 35 predictions with confidence levels ranging from 50% to 99%. The predictions cover topics such as international conflicts, economic issues, US politics, and personal goals. Scott invites readers to suggest additional predictions. Shorter summary