Scott Alexander reviews Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', a book about existential risks to humanity, noting Ord's careful analysis and surprisingly low risk estimates while emphasizing the importance of addressing these risks.
Longer summary
This book review discusses Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', which examines existential risks to humanity. The review outlines Ord's arguments for taking these risks seriously, his analysis of specific risks like nuclear war and AI, and his recommendations for addressing them. The reviewer notes Ord's careful statistical reasoning and surprisingly low risk estimates for many scenarios, while still emphasizing the overall importance of mitigating existential risks. The review concludes by reflecting on Ord's perspective and the appropriate response to even seemingly small risks of human extinction.
Shorter summary