The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners. Longer summary

This post discusses the potential economic impact of automation and AI, addressing concerns about job displacement and economic crisis. The authors argue that while automation will continue to change the job market, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic crisis in the foreseeable future. They examine historical trends in employment, current technological capabilities, and economic theories to support their argument. The post concludes that new jobs will continue to be created as old ones are automated, maintaining overall employment levels, though the benefits of automation may flow primarily to capital owners. Shorter summary

Scott reviews 'Ages of Discord', which applies cyclic theories of civilizational rise and fall to modern America, finding the data interesting but the core theory questionable. Longer summary

Scott reviews Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord', which attempts to apply the demographic-structural theory of civilizational cycles to modern America. The book presents data showing cyclic patterns in various societal indicators over the past 200+ years, including two main cycles: a long 150-year cycle of national growth and decline, and a shorter 40-60 year cycle of instability. Scott examines the data, theory, and potential problems with applying this pre-industrial model to a modern economy. While finding the data interesting, he is skeptical of some of the theoretical explanations and notes several issues with the arguments. He concludes that while the book provides some valuable concepts and historical information, its core cyclical theory remains questionable. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors. Longer summary

This post analyzes the apparent wage stagnation and decoupling from productivity since 1973. Scott examines various explanations, including measurement issues, demographic changes, inflation calculations, increasing inequality, and policy changes. He concludes that wages have actually risen about 40-50% since 1973, but there is still a significant 50% decoupling from productivity. The main factors are increasing wage inequality (40%), inflation miscalculations (35%), and labor vs. capital inequality (15%). Scott breaks down potential causes and their relative importance, while noting several remaining questions and uncertainties. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the ethics of sympathy for workers in difficult professions, exploring the tension between economic incentives and personal experiences in shaping our views on labor issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the ethics of sympathy for workers in difficult professions, comparing his support for striking junior doctors with his lesser sympathy for struggling adjunct professors. He examines the role of personal experience, economic incentives, and societal obligations in shaping our views on these issues. The post delves into the complexities of 'skin in the game' arguments, discussing whether those directly affected by a situation have unique insights or are too biased to offer objective assessments. Scott uses personal anecdotes and hypothetical scenarios to illustrate the tension between rational economic arguments and emotional realities, ultimately questioning whether personal experience provides knowledge that can't be fully reduced to factual propositions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the puzzling lack of GDP impact from women's significant entry into the workforce, considering various explanations and economic implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the puzzling lack of impact on GDP trends despite women's significant entry into the workforce between 1935 and 1985. He explores possible explanations, including data inaccuracies, low-resolution data, substitution of unpaid labor, or contradictions to economic theory. The post also addresses whether women's workforce participation lowered male wages, drawing parallels to debates about immigrant labor. Scott notes the absence of evidence for wage depression and expresses confusion about the economic implications of this major labor force change. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander debunks a viral image about minimum wage and apartment affordability, showing how its methodology is flawed and recalculating more realistic figures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a viral image claiming to show the number of hours needed to work at minimum wage to afford a two-bedroom apartment in different states. He points out several flaws in the image's methodology and interpretation, including that it's not actually about minimum wage, that raising minimum wage wouldn't solve the problem, and that the numbers are misleading. Scott then recalculates the figures using more realistic assumptions, showing that the actual hours needed are much lower than the image suggests. He concludes that while minimum wage earners do face challenges, this particular image is not an accurate representation of those challenges. Shorter summary