Scott reviews 'Ages of Discord', which applies cyclic theories of civilizational rise and fall to modern America, finding the data interesting but the core theory questionable. Longer summary

Scott reviews Peter Turchin's book 'Ages of Discord', which attempts to apply the demographic-structural theory of civilizational cycles to modern America. The book presents data showing cyclic patterns in various societal indicators over the past 200+ years, including two main cycles: a long 150-year cycle of national growth and decline, and a shorter 40-60 year cycle of instability. Scott examines the data, theory, and potential problems with applying this pre-industrial model to a modern economy. While finding the data interesting, he is skeptical of some of the theoretical explanations and notes several issues with the arguments. He concludes that while the book provides some valuable concepts and historical information, its core cyclical theory remains questionable. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Secular Cycles', which proposes pre-industrial civilizations follow ~300 year cycles of growth and decline, examining the evidence and potential implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Secular Cycles' by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, which proposes that pre-industrial civilizations follow a cyclical pattern of growth, stagnation, and decline over about 300 years. The authors argue this cycle is driven by population dynamics and elite overproduction. Scott examines their evidence, methodology, and case studies, finding the theory intriguing but remaining somewhat skeptical. He considers potential implications for understanding history and modern society, while acknowledging the theory may not directly apply to the post-industrial world. Shorter summary