Scott Alexander reviews 'Secular Cycles', which proposes pre-industrial civilizations follow ~300 year cycles of growth and decline, examining the evidence and potential implications.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Secular Cycles' by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov, which proposes that pre-industrial civilizations follow a cyclical pattern of growth, stagnation, and decline over about 300 years. The authors argue this cycle is driven by population dynamics and elite overproduction. Scott examines their evidence, methodology, and case studies, finding the theory intriguing but remaining somewhat skeptical. He considers potential implications for understanding history and modern society, while acknowledging the theory may not directly apply to the post-industrial world.
Shorter summary