Scott Alexander argues that underpopulation concerns are overstated and likely irrelevant due to expected technological changes by 2100. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues against worries about underpopulation, stating that while there may be some demographic shifts and challenges, they are not as dire as some claim. He presents data showing global population will continue to grow until 2100, and even countries with declining populations will still have substantial numbers. He discusses potential issues like age pyramid concerns and innovation slowdowns, but argues these are either manageable or likely to be overshadowed by technological changes. Scott concludes that long-term population projections are largely irrelevant due to the likelihood of transformative technological changes before 2100. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Wizard and the Prophet' by Charles Mann, exploring contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt and Norman Borlaug. Longer summary

This review of Charles Mann's 'The Wizard and the Prophet' explores the contrasting approaches to human-nature relationships through the lives of William Vogt (the 'Prophet') and Norman Borlaug (the 'Wizard'). The reviewer initially favors Borlaug's Wizardly approach of using science and technology to solve problems, but later acknowledges the complexity of modern systems may require a more holistic approach. The review covers the book's structure, discussing the biographies of Vogt and Borlaug, and then exploring four key areas: food, water, energy, and climate change. The reviewer concludes by reflecting on the challenges of COVID-19 and the need to continue striving for improvement despite increasing complexity. Shorter summary

Scott examines hyperbolic growth models in population and economics, their apparent cancellation around 1960, and speculates on AI's potential to restart such growth. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of hyperbolic growth and its implications for technological and economic progress. Scott begins by discussing Heinz von Foerster's model of population growth, which predicted infinite population by 2026. He then applies this concept to economic growth, showing how it seemed to be on a hyperbolic trajectory until around 1960. The post examines why this growth pattern stopped, linking it to population growth trends. Scott also discusses the Industrial Revolution's role in this model and how it didn't significantly alter the overall growth trajectory. Finally, he speculates on the potential for AI to restart hyperbolic growth by providing a new way to convert economic resources into research capacity. Shorter summary

Scott imagines a future where population growth leads to more historians than historical subjects, resulting in extreme academic specialization and scrutiny of ordinary individuals from our era. Longer summary

Scott Alexander humorously extrapolates current trends in population growth and academic specialization to imagine a future where there are more classicists than ancient Greeks, and eventually more historians studying each person from our era than we might expect. He starts by calculating the current ratio of classicists to ancient Greeks, then projects this forward, considering factors like space colonization and technological advances. The post ends with a fictional scenario where thousands of future scholars are studying the life and tweets of a single, unremarkable person from our time, ironically analyzing a tweet where this person claimed no one noticed or cared about them. Shorter summary