Scott examines hyperbolic growth models in population and economics, their apparent cancellation around 1960, and speculates on AI's potential to restart such growth. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of hyperbolic growth and its implications for technological and economic progress. Scott begins by discussing Heinz von Foerster's model of population growth, which predicted infinite population by 2026. He then applies this concept to economic growth, showing how it seemed to be on a hyperbolic trajectory until around 1960. The post examines why this growth pattern stopped, linking it to population growth trends. Scott also discusses the Industrial Revolution's role in this model and how it didn't significantly alter the overall growth trajectory. Finally, he speculates on the potential for AI to restart hyperbolic growth by providing a new way to convert economic resources into research capacity. Shorter summary