Scott Alexander compares two contrasting models of how social movements gain or lose respectability, using examples from gay rights and environmental issues to explore their implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'respectability cascades' in social movements, comparing two contrasting models. The first model, exemplified by the gay rights movement, suggests that when less respectable individuals publicly support a cause, it gradually becomes more acceptable for increasingly respectable people to join. The second model, illustrated by issues like endocrine disruptors and immigration, suggests that when disreputable people champion a cause, it becomes toxic and respectable people avoid it. Scott discusses the strategic implications of these models, particularly for his own interest in protecting scientific integrity from regressive leftism. He considers various factors that might determine which model applies in a given situation, such as the initial level of taboo, the likeability of supporters, and the availability of alternatives for supporters. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores the overuse of the term 'conspiracy theory' and provides heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiratorial claims. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of conspiracy theories, arguing that the term is often overused and misapplied. He presents a list of various claims, ranging from political conspiracies to scientific misconduct, and analyzes which should be considered conspiracy theories. The post introduces the 'Basic Argument Against Conspiracy Theories' which states that large secret organizations are difficult to maintain without detection. Scott then applies this principle to various scenarios, showing how some seemingly conspiratorial ideas might not actually qualify as conspiracy theories. He concludes by offering heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiracy claims, emphasizing that the size, secrecy, and self-interest of the groups involved are key factors to consider. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander recounts his frustrating attempt to conduct a study on a bipolar disorder screening test, highlighting the excessive bureaucratic hurdles that ultimately led to the study's abandonment. Longer summary

Scott Alexander describes his frustrating experience trying to conduct a study on the validity of a bipolar disorder screening test. He encounters numerous bureaucratic hurdles from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), including issues with consent forms, data security, and patient privacy. Despite his best efforts and those of his colleagues, the study is eventually abandoned due to the overwhelming regulatory burden. Scott reflects on how this experience has made him skeptical of the current research approval process, arguing that it disproportionately hinders small-scale, independent researchers while favoring large institutions. He concludes by expressing hope for reform in the scientific research process to make it more accessible and efficient. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews two papers exposing statistical manipulation techniques in psychology research and addiction treatment program evaluations. Longer summary

This post discusses two papers on statistical manipulation in scientific studies. The first paper, 'False Positive Psychology', demonstrates how researchers can use four tricks to artificially achieve statistical significance: measuring multiple dependent variables, choosing when to end experiments, controlling for confounders, and testing different conditions. The authors show these tricks can make random data appear significant 61% of the time. The second paper, 'How To Have A High Success Rate In Treatment', reveals how addiction treatment programs can inflate their success rates through various methods like carefully choosing the denominator, selecting promising candidates, redefining success, and omitting control groups. Both papers highlight the ease of manipulating statistics to produce desired results in research and treatment evaluations. Shorter summary