Scott Alexander explores the overuse of the term 'conspiracy theory' and provides heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiratorial claims. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the concept of conspiracy theories, arguing that the term is often overused and misapplied. He presents a list of various claims, ranging from political conspiracies to scientific misconduct, and analyzes which should be considered conspiracy theories. The post introduces the 'Basic Argument Against Conspiracy Theories' which states that large secret organizations are difficult to maintain without detection. Scott then applies this principle to various scenarios, showing how some seemingly conspiratorial ideas might not actually qualify as conspiracy theories. He concludes by offering heuristics for evaluating the plausibility of conspiracy claims, emphasizing that the size, secrecy, and self-interest of the groups involved are key factors to consider. Shorter summary