Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander drafts a letter to the FDA arguing against their decision to halt 23andMe's genetic testing services, highlighting the benefits and addressing the FDA's concerns. Longer summary

Scott Alexander writes a letter to the FDA expressing concern about their decision to halt 23andMe's genetic testing services. He argues that personal genomics services like 23andMe provide valuable and affordable genetic information to patients and doctors, raise awareness about genetics, and contribute to genetic research. Scott counters the FDA's concerns about false positives, test validation, and patient self-management, suggesting that these issues are either manageable or apply to many other medical tests and information sources. He urges the FDA to work with 23andMe to ensure their service returns to the market quickly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a roundup of recent medical and psychological studies, covering topics from UV light exposure to belief in science during stress. Longer summary

This post is a roundup of recent medical and psychological studies from June. Scott Alexander covers a wide range of topics, including UV light exposure benefits, gut microbiota research, obesity factors, iodine deficiency effects on intelligence, Medicare cost variations, ketamine for depression, hypothermia caps for chemotherapy patients, cruise ships as alternatives to assisted living, peer review effectiveness, genetic risk for schizophrenia and IQ, obesity rates in lesbians, oxytocin and pair-bonding, and belief in science during stressful situations. The tone is informative with occasional humorous or sarcastic comments. Shorter summary