Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary

Scott introduces his new fiction project 'Unsong' with a surreal prologue mixing historical events and fantastical elements, set around the Apollo 8 mission in 1968. Longer summary

This post introduces Scott's new fiction project, 'Unsong'. The prologue sets up a surreal alternate history where the Apollo 8 mission in 1968 encounters an unexpected barrier in space. The narrative interweaves actual historical events with fantastical omens and portents, culminating in the spacecraft crashing into a 'crystal sphere' surrounding the Earth. The post ends with Scott announcing his plan to publish chapters of this story weekly on a dedicated website. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and comments on passages from David Friedman's 'The Machinery of Freedom', discussing various libertarian ideas and their implications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and comments on various passages from David Friedman's book 'The Machinery of Freedom'. He highlights Friedman's arguments about love, trade, and force as means of cooperation; the historical development of regulation; healthcare costs for the poor; school vouchers; university reform; urban transit solutions; urban renewal; private space exploration; drug regulation; and workers buying out companies. Scott agrees with some points, critiques others, and adds his own insights and examples throughout. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that real technological progress is driven by usefulness and profitability, not the coolness factor often seen in futuristic predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a certain strain of futurology that predicts impressive but impractical technological advancements. He argues that real technological progress is driven by usefulness and profitability, not coolness. The post begins by listing numerous technological advancements from 1969 to 2014, then transitions to discussing why certain sci-fi predictions haven't materialized. Scott explains that space colonization, undersea domes, and massive arcologies aren't practical or necessary given current circumstances. He concludes that the lack of moon missions since 1969 is due to a lack of compelling incentives, not technological stagnation. Shorter summary