Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes predictions for the next five years, covering a wide range of topics including AI, politics, culture wars, economics, technology, and science. He discusses potential developments in AI capabilities, European politics, global economic trends, religious shifts in the US, the future of US political parties, culture war dynamics, healthcare and economic divides, cryptocurrency, genetic research, space exploration, and global risks. The post is structured with general predictions followed by specific numbered predictions with probability estimates for each topic. Scott maintains a skeptical tone about dramatic changes, often predicting gradual shifts or continuations of current trends rather than radical transformations. Shorter summary

This post systematically rebuts common Reactionary political beliefs on topics like societal decline, traditional governance, progress, and social issues through data analysis and historical examples. Longer summary

This post is an extensive rebuttal to common beliefs held by the Reactionary political movement. It systematically addresses and counters Reactionary claims about societal decline, traditional monarchies, the origins and nature of progress, corporate governance models, and modern views on race and gender. The author analyzes data and historical examples to argue against Reactionary positions, while acknowledging some valid critiques and interesting ideas within the movement. The post ends by listing various rebuttals and responses to the FAQ itself from Reactionary bloggers. Shorter summary