Scott Alexander examines the rise, fall, and alleged resurrection of the antidepressant NSI-189, expressing skepticism about its efficacy and the broader challenges in developing new antidepressants.
Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the disappointing results of NSI-189, a promising new antidepressant, in FDA trials. He explains how the drug initially failed to outperform placebo on the primary endpoint, leading to a stock crash for Neuralstem. However, the company later released positive secondary endpoint results, causing their stock to rise again. Scott expresses skepticism about these new results, suggesting they may be due to statistical manipulation rather than true efficacy. He reflects on the challenges of developing new antidepressants and the tendency to get overly excited about new drugs, ending with a sardonic hope for another new antidepressant, SAGE-217.
Shorter summary