Scott Alexander examines the underutilization of prediction aggregation platforms like Metaculus, exploring potential reasons and expressing surprise at their lack of widespread adoption. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the potential of prediction aggregation platforms like Metaculus, questioning why they haven't gained more traction despite their proven accuracy and utility. He explores various explanations, including government regulation, public perception, and signaling issues. The post includes insights from Prof. Aguirre of Metaculus, who highlights challenges such as limited resources and the difficulty many people have in understanding probabilistic predictions. Scott expresses surprise at the lack of wider adoption and suggests that the bottleneck in scaling these platforms seems unnecessary given the abundance of interested, capable predictors. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'Superforecasting' by Philip Tetlock, discussing the traits of highly accurate predictors and the book's validation of rationalist techniques. Longer summary

This post reviews Philip Tetlock's book 'Superforecasting', which explores the qualities of highly accurate predictors. Tetlock's Good Judgment Project identified a group of 'superforecasters' who consistently outperformed others, including CIA analysts. The review discusses the characteristics of these superforecasters, emphasizing their understanding of logic and probability, ability to break down problems, and resistance to cognitive biases. Scott Alexander notes the similarities between superforecasters' methods and rationalist techniques, suggesting the book's value lies in providing high-status validation for these approaches rather than presenting new information to those already familiar with rationality concepts. Shorter summary