Scott Alexander defends his past writings on Trump, emphasizing his consistent criticism of Trump while refuting accusations that he underestimated Trump's racism or missed hidden signals. Longer summary

Scott Alexander defends his past posts about Trump in light of recent criticism. He emphasizes that he has never been a Trump supporter and has consistently criticized him. He addresses two main points of contention: First, his stance against overinterpreting politicians' statements as secret codes (dog whistles), arguing that Trump's recent Muslim ban was openly stated policy, not a hidden agenda. Second, he reiterates that his post 'You Are Still Crying Wolf' acknowledged Trump would likely ban Muslims, but argued this stemmed from cognitive bias rather than white supremacy. Scott maintains that while Trump is bad and often motivated by everyday racism, he is not an ideological white supremacist. He encourages critics to make their own predictions about Trump's presidency and compare them to his own recorded predictions. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that the 2016 US election outcome shouldn't drastically change our understanding of politics, given how close the race is. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election shouldn't dramatically change our understanding of politics and society. He criticizes both extreme predictions of a certain Hillary Clinton victory and a certain Donald Trump victory, pointing out that the race is close enough that the outcome could be determined by random factors like weather. Alexander suggests that people should precommit to their views on politics and society rather than drastically changing them based on the election result. He uses his own January 2016 prediction of Trump having a 20% chance of winning (conditional on winning the Republican primary) as an example of a reasonable prediction, given that prediction markets on election eve give Trump an 17.9% chance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Trump's 'The Art of the Deal', finding it mostly autobiographical with little useful business advice, and revealing Trump's deal-focused worldview. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Donald Trump's 1988 book 'The Art of the Deal'. The review notes that while the book promises business advice, only a small portion actually contains such advice, which is vague and not particularly useful. The bulk of the book is an autobiography focused on Trump's real estate deals. Alexander observes that Trump's approach to business is less about changing systems and more about gaming existing ones through coordination, often involving strategic deception. The review highlights Trump's focus on hiring the best people and knowing the right connections, which Alexander sees as potentially explaining Trump's approach to politics. Overall, Alexander portrays Trump as having a narrow, deal-focused worldview that, while alien to the reviewer, has proven successful. Shorter summary